Shareholder Yield Strategy: Beyond Dividends

Cambria Investment Management and Mebane Faber recently announced the Cambria Shareholder Yield ETF (SYLD). Faber outlines the Shareholder Yield strategy in his Shareholder Yield: A Better Approach to Dividend Investing.

The Shareholder Yield strategy is especially relevant today, with investors desperate for  yield in a low interest rate environment. The basic premise behind the strategy is that companies have three options for returning cash to shareholders – dividends, share buybacks, and paying down debt.

Dividends are the most widely understood method for companies to return cash to shareholders, but share buybacks and debt reduction are also methods for returning cash. Share buybacks increase the ownership stake of equity holders by reducing the number of outstanding shares. When a company pays down debt, it reduces its obligations to bondholders and shifts ownership to equity holders.  Tax policy can also influence how companies choose to return cash to shareholders – if dividends are taxed at a higher rate than capital gains, this creates incentives to return cash via buybacks and debt reduction.

Cambria’s fund fact sheet describes SYLD as “an actively managed fund that employs the manager’s quantitative algorithm to select U.S. listed companies that show strong characteristics in returning free cash flow to their shareholders. Specifically, SYLD invests in 100 stocks with market caps greater than $200 million that rank among the highest in (a) paying cash dividends, (b) engaging in net share repurchases, and (c) paying down debt on their balance sheets.”

Besides investing in SYLD there are other options for screening, testing and investing in a shareholder yield strategy.  I created a Shareholder Yield screen using Portfolio123 and backtested it to 1999. My Shareholder Yield screen attempts to closely mimic the one outlined by Faber and Cambria, but there will be differences since Cambria does not fully disclose their ranking methodology.

Shareholder YIeld can be defined in a simple equation as Dividend Yield + Net Buyback Yield + Net Debt Paydown Yield. The tests below use a custom ranking system to rank stocks based on these three factors.

The first test is a Shareholder Yield strategy on stocks in the S&P 500. The test purchased the top 20 stocks based on their Shareholder Yield and rebalanced every 8 weeks (4, 6, and 12 week rebalances also showed strong results). I assumed .25% in slippage to account for trading friction, dividends are included in the results, and the benchmark is SPY.

Results from 5, 10, and 14+ year (1/2/99-5/21/13) results are below:

Charts courtesy of Portfolio123

5year shareholder yield

 

10year shareholder yield

 

14year shareholder yield

The overall results are strong when compared to SPY. However, taxes and commissions could be an additional drag on returns and the max drawdown of the strategy could also be too much for some to handle.

I am a fan of sacrificing some overall return for lower volatility and drawdown. The next test uses the same parameters as above with one added market timing filter. Stocks were only purchased on the rebalance date (every 8 weeks) if the benchmark (SPY) was trading above its 200 day simple moving average on the rebalance date. Positions were held for 8 weeks regardless of whether SPY dropped above/below the 200 day moving average between rebalance dates.

The 5, 10, and 14+ year results are below:

Charts courtesy of Portfolio123

5year shareholder yield timing10year shareholder yield timing

14year shareholder yield timing

Drawdowns were reduced as was total returns. An 8 week rebalance period reduces turnover, but it increases the likelihood that SPY could make a fairly significant move above/below its moving average between rebalance dates. This simple timing strategy may not be optimal, but is intended to show the potential for reducing portfolio drawdowns by employing some simple techniques.

What happens when we take share buybacks and debt reduction out of the equation and simply purchase the top 20 highest dividend yielding stocks in the S&P 500 every 8 weeks? In other words, are we accomplishing anything in the results above by screening for share repurchases and debt reduction?

The results of a high dividend yield strategy:

Charts courtesy of Portfolio123

5year high yield10year high yield14year high yield

The high yield strategy performed well compared to SPY, but under-performed both on a total and risk-adjusted basis in the 5, 10, and 14 year tests when compared to a Shareholder Yield strategy.

Cambria’s commitment to a Shareholder Yield ETF, the historical results outlined in Shareholder Yield: A Better Approach to Dividend Investing (and elsewhere on the web), and the results of the tests using Portfolio123  indicate that a shareholder yield strategy is worth our attention.

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Trend Trading Apple & Lululemon

Below are two new trading videos on Apple (AAPL) and Lululemon (LULU), courtesy of Adam Hewison / Marketclub. The videos are free to watch and highlight some of the trading tools available at Marketclub:

Has Apple Lost Its Way?

 

In a recent Bloomberg news poll, 71% of investors believe Apple has become less innovative. Has Apple lost its way? In today’s short five minute video, I will be examining Apple stock (NASDAQ:AAPL) and investigating what drives the price.

 

Watch this short video here.

 

We’ll look to see what pushed Apple’s stock price over $700 and what caused Apple to crash below $400 in such a short period of time.

 

For more information on the tools I use in this video, click here to visit MarketClub.

 

Is LULU a Lemon of a Stock?

 

Today I am going to share with you one of my favorite technical tools and how to use this tool to successfully navigate the ups and downs of Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ:LULU).

 

Click here to watch the video!

 

Just recently, there has been a great deal of controversy about this company. You might recall the problem they had with their see-through workout pants. It turns out their workout pants were just a little bit too sheer for everyone’s comfort. The company also got sued by a pension fund for giving executives big bonuses on the eve of the recall of their too sheer workout pants.

 

In this video, we will be diving into Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) using a technical tool that is readily available to you and one that is very easy to use and understand. This short video is just five minutes in duration and will help you understand the key element of this simple tool. It is a tool I have used successfully for many years in both stocks and other markets. Like any technical tool, it is not perfect and not guaranteed to make you money, however this technical tool comes as close to perfection as you can get.

 

Watch the video here.

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Like what you read? Consider a Paypal donation.

Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com