Dual Momentum Update

Scott’s Investments provides a free “Dual ETF Momentum” spreadsheet which was originally created in February 2013. The strategy was inspired by a paper written by Gary Antonacci and available on Optimal Momentum.  Antonacci’s book, Dual Momentum Investing: An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk, also details Dual Momentum as a total portfolio strategy.

My Dual ETF Momentum spreadsheet is available here and the objective is to track four pairs of ETFs and provide an “Invested” signal for the ETF in each pair with the highest relative momentum. Invested signals also require positive absolute momentum, hence the term “Dual Momentum”.

Relative momentum is gauged by the 12 month total returns of each ETF. The 12 month total returns of each ETF is also compared to a short-term Treasury ETF (a “cash” filter) in the form of iShares Barclays 1-3 Treasury Bond ETF (SHY). In order to have an “Invested” signal the ETF with the highest relative strength must also have 12-month total returns greater than the 12-month total returns of SHY. This is the absolute momentum filter which is detailed in depth by Antonacci, and has historically helped increase risk-adjusted returns.

An “average” return signal for each ETF is also available on the spreadsheet. The concept is the same as the 12-month relative momentum. However, the “average” return signal uses the average of the past 3, 6, and 12 (“3/6/12″) month total returns for each ETF. The “invested” signal is based on the ETF with the highest relative momentum for the past 3, 6 and 12 months. The ETF with the highest average relative strength must also have an average 3/6/12 total returns greater than the 3/6/12 total returns of the cash ETF.

Portfolio123 was used to test a similar strategy using the same portfolios and combined momentum score (“3/6/12″).  The test results were posted here.

Below are the four portfolios along with current signals:

Return Data Provided by Finviz

The Dual ETF Momentum spreadsheet also has four additional sheets using a dual momentum strategy with broker specific commission-free ETFs for TD Ameritrade, Charles Schwab, Fidelity, and Vanguard. It is important to note that each broker may have additional trade restrictions and the terms of their commission-free ETFs could change in the future.

Dividend Champion Portfolio – January Update

The High Yield Dividend Champion Portfolio is a publicly tracked stock portfolio on Scott’s Investments.  Its goal is to capture quality high yield stocks with a history of raising dividends.

The screening process for this portfolio starts with the “Dividend Champions” as compiled by DRIP Investing. The list is comprised of stocks that have increased their dividend payout for at least 25 consecutive years.  Stocks are then ranked on yield, P/E and 3 year dividend growth rate but payout ratio is no longer a factor.

Stocks are sold on the re-balance date (generally around the 5th of the month) when they drop out of the top 15 (to limit turnover) and are replaced with the next highest rated stock.

The top 25 stocks are below and displayed in order of their overall ranking (figures are from the end of December):

Name Symbol Yield P/E 3-yr
Target Corp. TGT 3.32 13.25 13.66
VF Corp. VFC 3.15 18.52 18.69
AT&T Inc. T 4.61 18.10 2.17
T. Rowe Price Group TROW 2.87 16.95 12.43
Old Republic International ORI 3.95 13.01 1.37
Consolidated Edison ED 3.64 18.19 2.90
Altria Group Inc. MO 3.61 25.42 8.59
Helmerich & Payne Inc. HP 3.62 999.00 28.76
Computer Services Inc. CSVI 2.82 19.27 20.89
Eagle Financial Services EFSI 3.42 15.42 2.57
Kimberly-Clark Corp. KMB 3.22 20.75 6.21
Coca-Cola Company KO 3.38 25.13 7.72
Emerson Electric EMR 3.44 22.66 4.70
Universal Corp. UVV 3.39 18.97 1.96
National Retail Properties NNN 4.12 40.55 3.62
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. WMT 2.89 14.99 3.26
PepsiCo Inc. PEP 2.88 22.95 9.11
Vectren Corp. VVC 3.22 20.86 4.37
Archer Daniels Midland ADM 2.63 17.29 16.45
ExxonMobil Corp. XOM 3.32 42.18 6.60
Mercury General Corp. MCY 4.14 27.12 0.41
Johnson & Johnson JNJ 2.78 20.18 6.74
McDonald’s Corp. MCD 3.09 22.75 4.98
Eaton Vance Corp. EV 2.67 19.75 9.45
Procter & Gamble Co. PG 3.19 23.82 4.12

There is no turnover in the portfolio this month.

The current portfolio is below:

Position Average Purchase Price Initial Purchase Date Percentage Gain/Loss Excluding Dividends
VFC 57.39 12/7/2016 -7.23%
ED 70.41 12/7/2016 3.17%
ORI 16.22 4/4/2014 17.08%
KO 41.29 12/7/2016 -0.61%
TGT 68.65 6/3/2016 4.05%
MO 58.14 1/7/2016 16.48%
TROW 71.35 7/5/2016 2.99%
HP 80.9 10/6/2014 -2.55%
UVV 56.96 10/6/2016 15.70%
T 38.13 3/7/2016 7.03%

The portfolio equity curve is below:

 

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