Dual Momentum August Update

Scott’s Investments provides a free “Dual ETF Momentum” spreadsheet which was originally created in February 2013. The strategy was inspired by a paper written by Gary Antonacci and available on Optimal Momentum.  Antonacci’s book, Dual Momentum Investing: An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk, also details Dual Momentum as a total portfolio strategy.

My Dual ETF Momentum spreadsheet is available here and the objective is to track four pairs of ETFs and provide an “Invested” signal for the ETF in each pair with the highest relative momentum. Invested signals also require positive absolute momentum, hence the term “Dual Momentum”.

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Relative momentum is gauged by the 12 month total returns of each ETF. The 12 month total returns of each ETF is also compared to a short-term Treasury ETF (a “cash” filter) in the form of iShares Barclays 1-3 Treasury Bond ETF (SHY). In order to have an “Invested” signal the ETF with the highest relative strength must also have 12-month total returns greater than the 12-month total returns of SHY. This is the absolute momentum filter which is detailed in depth by Antonacci, and has historically helped increase risk-adjusted returns.

An “average” return signal for each ETF is also available on the spreadsheet. The concept is the same as the 12-month relative momentum. However, the “average” return signal uses the average of the past 3, 6, and 12 (“3/6/12″) month total returns for each ETF. The “invested” signal is based on the ETF with the highest relative momentum for the past 3, 6 and 12 months. The ETF with the highest average relative strength must also have an average 3/6/12 total returns greater than the 3/6/12 total returns of the cash ETF.

Portfolio123 was used to test a similar strategy using the same portfolios and combined momentum score (“3/6/12″).  The test results were posted here.

I also posted an updated test previously using Allocate Smartly here.

Below are the four portfolios along with current signals:

Return Data Provided by Quandl

Dividend Champion Portfolio August Update

The High Yield Dividend Champion Portfolio is a publicly tracked stock portfolio on Scott’s Investments.  Its goal is to capture quality high yield stocks with a history of raising dividends.

The screening process for this portfolio starts with the “Dividend Champions” as compiled by DRIP Investing. The list is comprised of stocks that have increased their dividend payout for at least 25 consecutive years.  Stocks are then ranked on yield, P/E and 3 year dividend growth rate and assigned an overall rank.

Stocks are sold on the re-balance date (generally around the 5th of the month) when they drop out of the top 15 (to limit turnover) and are replaced with the next highest rated stock.

The top 25 stocks are below and displayed in order of their overall ranking (figures are from the end of July):

 

Name Symbol Yield P/E 3-yr
Target Corp. TGT 4.38 11.81 13.7
Altria Group Inc. MO 3.76 8.57 8.6
Helmerich & Payne Inc. HP 5.53 999 28.8
AT&T Inc. T 5.03 18.31 2.2
Archer Daniels Midland ADM 3.03 17.8 16.4
Sonoco Products Co. SON 3.22 18.36 5.9
W.W. Grainger Inc. GWW 3.07 19.19 10.4
Old Republic International ORI 3.87 12.66 1.4
Genuine Parts Co. GPC 3.18 18.38 6.4
Weyco Group Inc. WEYS 3.16 18.34 5.8
United Bankshares Inc. UBSI 3.83 17.51 1.8
T. Rowe Price Group TROW 2.76 14.19 12.4
People’s United Financial PBCT 3.96 19.38 1.5
ExxonMobil Corp. XOM 3.85 33.49 6.6
Consolidated Edison ED 3.33 19.09 2.9
Kimberly-Clark Corp. KMB 3.15 20.6 6.2
National Retail Properties NNN 4.75 35.38 3.6
Community Trust Banc. CTBI 3.06 16.18 2.8
Emerson Electric EMR 3.22 23.19 4.7
Coca-Cola Company KO 3.23 47.75 7.7
Leggett & Platt Inc. LEG 2.99 18.46 4.1
Chevron Corp. CVX 3.96 71.37 3.2
Eagle Financial Services EFSI 2.95 15.13 2.6
Universal Health Realty Trust UHT 3.41 23.99 1.6
VF Corp. VFC 2.7 23.56 18.7

 

There is no turnover in the portfolio for August.  I will use the available cash in the portfolio to purchase 49 additional shares of HP which will lower its average cost basis. The current portfolio is below:

 

Position Shares Average Purchase Price Initial Purchase Date Cost Basis Current Value Percentage Gain/Loss Excluding Dividends
PBCT 1758 17.86 7/7/2017 $31,397.88 $30,448.56 -3.02%
ED 390 70.41 12/7/2016 $27,459.90 $32,471.40 18.25%
ORI 1145 16.22 4/4/2014 $18,571.90 $22,155.75 19.30%
ADM 762 41.95 6/6/2017 $31,965.90 $32,377.38 1.29%
TGT 391 68.65 6/3/2016 $26,842.15 $22,627.17 -15.70%
MO 400 58.14 1/7/2016 $23,256.00 $26,124.00 12.33%
TROW 300 71.35 7/5/2016 $21,405.00 $24,954.00 16.58%
HP 390 76.57 10/6/2014 $29,862.30 $18,127.20 -39.30%
WEYS 1088 27.81 3/7/2017 $30,257.28 $29,724.16 -1.76%
T 650 38.13 3/7/2016 $24,784.50 $24,934.00 0.60%

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