Trade Signal on SPY

MarketClub gave a “cash” signal today on SPY (SPDR S&P 500) at $138.55. For background on the portfolio please see my initial article on the portfolio here.  The initial long position was triggered on 1/10/12 at $129.42, resulting in a hypothetical gain of 7.05% (excluding the dividend SPY paid on 3/6/12).

According to MarketClub’s trade triangle system FXE (CurrencyShares Euro Trust), USO (United States Oil Fund) and GLD (SPDR Gold) remain in a strong downtrend/sell signal but this portfolio is not shorting stocks so it remains in cash on these positions.  Thus, the MarketClub portfolio I track on Scott’s Investments is 100% cash.

The purpose of tracking this portfolio is to see how well the trade signals perform out of sample / real-time.  Since I am not shorting stocks for the purpose of this portfolio, there could be periods of time where all or a majority of the portfolio is in cash.  In a real world application, idle cash could be allocated to other potential trades.

Year to date the portfolio has booked a hypothetical profit of 7.05% on one SPY trade, -4.1% on trade #1 with USO, and 2.44% on trade #2 with USO.

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Return calculations exclude commissions and taxes

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

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