Trade Signal on SPY

MarketClub gave a “cash” signal today on SPY (SPDR S&P 500) at $138.55. For background on the portfolio please see my initial article on the portfolio here.  The initial long position was triggered on 1/10/12 at $129.42, resulting in a hypothetical gain of 7.05% (excluding the dividend SPY paid on 3/6/12).

According to MarketClub’s trade triangle system FXE (CurrencyShares Euro Trust), USO (United States Oil Fund) and GLD (SPDR Gold) remain in a strong downtrend/sell signal but this portfolio is not shorting stocks so it remains in cash on these positions.  Thus, the MarketClub portfolio I track on Scott’s Investments is 100% cash.

The purpose of tracking this portfolio is to see how well the trade signals perform out of sample / real-time.  Since I am not shorting stocks for the purpose of this portfolio, there could be periods of time where all or a majority of the portfolio is in cash.  In a real world application, idle cash could be allocated to other potential trades.

Year to date the portfolio has booked a hypothetical profit of 7.05% on one SPY trade, -4.1% on trade #1 with USO, and 2.44% on trade #2 with USO.

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Return calculations exclude commissions and taxes

More on this topic (What's this?)
ETF Losers, May 4th 2012 (XIV, OIL, ERUS, USO, RSX)
Market Outlook
How To Profit From An Increase In Oil Prices When It Occurs
Read more on SPDR S&P 500 ETF, United States Oil Fund at Wikinvest

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