Trade Signal on SPY

MarketClub gave a “cash” signal today on SPY (SPDR S&P 500) at $138.55. For background on the portfolio please see my initial article on the portfolio here.  The initial long position was triggered on 1/10/12 at $129.42, resulting in a hypothetical gain of 7.05% (excluding the dividend SPY paid on 3/6/12).

According to MarketClub’s trade triangle system FXE (CurrencyShares Euro Trust), USO (United States Oil Fund) and GLD (SPDR Gold) remain in a strong downtrend/sell signal but this portfolio is not shorting stocks so it remains in cash on these positions.  Thus, the MarketClub portfolio I track on Scott’s Investments is 100% cash.

The purpose of tracking this portfolio is to see how well the trade signals perform out of sample / real-time.  Since I am not shorting stocks for the purpose of this portfolio, there could be periods of time where all or a majority of the portfolio is in cash.  In a real world application, idle cash could be allocated to other potential trades.

Year to date the portfolio has booked a hypothetical profit of 7.05% on one SPY trade, -4.1% on trade #1 with USO, and 2.44% on trade #2 with USO.

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Return calculations exclude commissions and taxes

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