Early in 2012 Scott’s Investments added a daily Ivy Portfolio spreadsheet. This tool uses Google Documents and Yahoo Finance to track the 10 month moving average signals for two of the portfolios listed in Mebane Faber’s book The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets. Faber discusses 5, 10, and 20 security portfolios that have trading signals based on long-term moving averages.
The Ivy Portfolio spreadsheet tracks the 5 and 10 ETF Portfolios listed in Faber’s book. When a security is trading below its 10 month simple moving average, the position is listed as “Cash”. When the security is trading above its 10 month simple moving average the positions is listed as “Invested”.
The spreadsheet’s signals update once daily (typically in the evening) using dividend/split adjusted closing price from Yahoo Finance. The 10 month simple moving average is based on the most recent 10 months including the current month’s most recent daily closing price. Even though the signals update daily, it is not an endorsement to check signals daily. It simply gives the spreadsheet more versatility for user’s to check at their leisure.
The page also displays the percentage each ETF within the Ivy 10 and Ivy 5 Portfolio is above or below the current 10 month simple moving average, using both adjusted and unadjusted data.
If an ETF has paid a dividend or split within the past 10 months, then when comparing the adjusted/unadjusted data you will see differences in the percent an ETF is above/below the 10 month SMA. This could also potentially impact whether an ETF is above or below its 10 month SMA. Regardless of whether you prefer the adjusted or unadjusted data, it is important to remain consistent in your approach.
I do not track these portfolios as hypothetical portfolios like I do with other portfolios on the site but do periodically backtest the strategy. For the most recent test results, please view December’s update.
The current signals based on January 31st closing prices are below. International and domestic equities are leading, while bonds are lagging and trading below their 10 month moving average.
The first table is based on adjusted historical data and the second table is based on unadjusted price data: