Weekend Reads

Research Affiliates shows us the benefit of combining multiple “smart beta” strategies (pdf)

From Alpha Architect: Meb Faber’s Global Momentum Fund , Diversification Matters: IVY 5 Year-To-Date & Does Doubling Down Work?

GMO’s Third Quarter Newsletter (pdf)

Swedroe: Why Alpha’s Getting More Elusive & Finding the Right International Bond ETF  – ETF.com

It’s Investor Behavior, Not Investment Behavior That Matters – The Irrelevant Investor

Assessing the Ray Dalio/Tony Robbins Portfolio & Tinkering with the Core Bond Recipe – Pragmatic Capitalism

Portfolio envy: The other guy’s size doesn’t matter – MarketWatch

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Weekend Reads

Below is a list of investment readings for the weekend:

From ETF.com, Swedroe: Gold Is A Hedge—If You Have Time

Paul Tudor Jones on the 200-Day Moving Average – Meb Faber Research

The Fed is not the Reason You’ve Been Wrong – Pragmatic Capitalism

From Alpha Architect: The 52-Week High and Momentum Investing

Individual Stock Momentum – That Dog Won’t Hunt, Dual Momentum

Great Investors Think in Terms of Probabilities – Pragmatic Capitalism

Cambria Debuts Global Momentum ETF

Market Earthquakes - A Wealth of Common Sense

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Dual Momentum ETF Portfolio for November

Scott’s Investments provides a free “Dual ETF Momentum” spreadsheet which was originally created in February 2013. The strategy was inspired by a paper written by Gary Antonacci and available on Optimal Momentum.

Antonacci has a new book out, Dual Momentum Investing: An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk. If you want to see how he applies Dual Momentum to a portfolio strategy I encourage you to read the book.

My Dual ETF Momentum spreadsheet is available here and the objective is to track four pairs of ETFs and provide an “Invested” signal for the ETF in each pair with the highest relative momentum. Invested signals also require positive absolute momentum, hence the term “Dual Momentum”.

Relative momentum is gauged by the 12 month total returns of each ETF. The 12 month total returns of each ETF is also compared to a short-term Treasury ETF (a “cash” filter) in the form of iShares Barclays 1-3 Treasury Bond ETF (SHY). In order to have an “Invested” signal the ETF with the highest relative strength must also have 12-month total returns greater than the 12-month total returns of SHY. This is the absolute momentum filter which is detailed in depth by Antonacci, and has historically helped increase risk-adjusted returns.

An “average” return signal for each ETF is also available on the spreadsheet. The concept is the same as the 12-month relative momentum. However, the “average” return signal uses the average of the past 3, 6, and 12 (“3/6/12″) month total returns for each ETF. The “invested” signal is based on the ETF with the highest relative momentum for the past 3, 6 and 12 months. The ETF with the highest average relative strength must also have an average 3/6/12 total returns greater than the 3/6/12 total returns of the cash ETF.

Portfolio123 was used to test a similar strategy using the same portfolios and combined momentum score (“3/6/12″).  The test results were posted in the 2013 Year in Review.

Below are the four portfolios along with current signals:

Return data courtesy of Finviz
Equity ETF 1 Year % Total Returns Average of Quarterly/Half/Full Year % Returns Signal based on 1 year returns Signal based on average returns
US Equities VTI 16.53 10 Invested Invested
International Equities VEU 1.81 -2.08
Cash SHY 0.48 0.26
Credit Risk ETF 1 Year % Total Returns Average of Quarterly/Half/Full Year % Returns Signal based on 1 year returns Signal based on average returns
High Yield Bond HYG 5.77 2.18 Invested Invested
Interm Credit Bond CIU 3.78 1.42
Cash SHY 0.48 0.26
Real-Estate Risk ETF 1 Year % Total Returns Average of Quarterly/Half/Full Year % Returns Signal based on 1 year returns Signal based on average returns
Equity REIT VNQ 23.78 12.56 Invested Invested
Mortgage REIT REM 23.31 9.78
Cash SHY 0.48 0.26
Economic Stress ETF 1 Year % Total Returns Average of Quarterly/Half/Full Year % Returns Signal based on 1 year returns Signal based on average returns
Gold GLD -9.55 -10.57
Long-term Treasuries TLT 18.9 9.71 Invested Invested
Cash SHY 0.48 0.26

 

As an added bonus, the spreadsheet also has four additional sheets using a dual momentum strategy with broker specific commission-free ETFs for TD Ameritrade, Charles Schwab, Fidelity, and Vanguard. It is important to note that each broker may have additional trade restrictions and the terms of their commission-free ETFs could change in the future.

More on this topic (What's this?)
How to Spot a Genuine Momentum Stock
More Sales Momentum For euNetworks in Q2
Infinera Maintained Its Momentum Through Q2
Read more on Momentum at Wikinvest
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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

High Yield Dividend Champion Portfolio – November Update

The High Yield Dividend Champion stock portfolio has been updated for November. The portfolio is tracked publicly as a continuous hypothetical portfolio with a starting balance of $100,000 on Scott’s Investments.

The High Yield Dividend Champion Portfolio uses a small number of historically relevant ideas to create a simple, yet powerful investment plan. As I previously detailed, “Some studies have shown that the, highest yielding, low payout stocks perform better over time than stocks with higher payouts and lower yields.”

The High Yield Dividend Champion Portfolio attempts to capture the best high yield, low payout stocks with a history of raising dividends. There are numerous ways to rank high yield/low payout stocks. The screening process for this portfolio starts with the “Dividend Champions” as compiled by DRIP Investing. The list is comprised of stocks that have increased their dividend payout for at least 25 consecutive years.

To date the portfolio is up over 96% including dividends.  I mentioned in the 2013 year in review that valuation of high yield stocks was a concern. In January’s update I noted that “I have lowered my expectations for future returns of US equities and high yield stocks.” However, US equities have held up well for most of 2014.

I added a valuation filter to the portfolio starting in 2014 in an attempt to mitigate concerns over valuation.  We still begin with the Dividend Champion list, which is first sorted by yield and the lowest 50% yielding stocks are eliminated. Eliminating the lowest yielding stocks ensures only stocks with a relatively “high” yield make the portfolio.

The remaining stocks are then assigned a rank based on their yield (the higher the yield the higher the rank), payout ratio (the lower the payout ratio the higher the rank), 3 year dividend growth rate, and price-earnings (P/E) ratio.  Extra weight is given to yield and payout ratio rankings.

I have also created a second portfolio using similar metrics as the High Yield Dividend Champion portfolio. The primary difference is it only requires 10 years of dividend increases and it also hedges the portfolio during unfavorable market conditions. Hedging requires margin, but the portfolio can also be implemented without the hedge. The portfolio is available on Portfolio123 and backtested results were posted in the June update.

The top 10 stocks based on the new ranking system make the portfolio. Stocks will be sold at the re-balance date (generally around the 5th of the month) when they drop out of the top 15 (to limit turnover) and are replaced with the next highest rated stock.

The top 15 stocks based on my ranking methodology are below and displayed in order of their overall ranking (figures are October month-end). There is no turnover in positions for November:

Name Symbol Yield
Chevron Corp. CVX 3.57
Old Republic International ORI 4.94
Helmerich & Payne Inc. HP 3.17
Eagle Financial Services EFSI 3.47
ExxonMobil Corp. XOM 2.85
AT&T Inc. T 5.28
Tompkins Financial Corp. TMP 3.35
AFLAC Inc. AFL 2.61
McDonald’s Corp. MCD 3.63
Mercury General Corp. MCY 4.63
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. WMT 2.52
Universal Corp. UVV 4.58
Community Trust Banc. CTBI 3.34
First Financial Corp. THFF 2.83
Eaton Vance Corp. EV 2.72

As previously stated EFSI is not purchased due to its low liquidity.

The current portfolio is below:

Position Initial Purchase Date Percentage Gain/Loss Excluding Dividends Current Allocation
CVX 12/6/2012 8.32% 8.20%
MCD 1/3/2014 -1.97% 8.02%
ORI 4/4/2014 -7.89% 8.69%
MCY 9/5/2014 8.32% 9.88%
TMP 8/6/2014 10.84% 10.73%
CTBI 5/5/2014 0.25% 12.69%
XOM 4/5/2013 6.81% 9.46%
HP 10/6/2014 -6.97% 10.18%
T 3/6/2014 7.98% 11.75%
THFF 7/7/2014 6.76% 10.14%

Below is the portfolio charted against three benchmarks:

November

More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on Dividend Investing at Wikinvest
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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Tuesday Investment Readings

Below is a list of investment articles for this election day:

Claim You’re MarketClub Trial – It’s Already Been Paid For!

Our Investment Beliefs – Research Affiliates

Value Investing Redux – Dual Momentum

Predicting Bonds with Stocks: A Strategy to Improve Timing in Corporate and High Yield Bonds – CSS Analytics

The Individual Investor’s Edge – Patrick O’Shaughnessy

Pursuing Portfolio Perfection – Attain Capital

Building a personal margin of safety – Abnormal Returns

Q&A with Wesley Gray of Alpha Architect: part one and part two - Abnormal Returns

Q&A with Tobias Carlisle author of Deep Value – Abnormal Returns

Long Cheap; Short Expensive. Buyer Beware. Alpha Architect

Analyzing Valuation Measures: A Performance Horse-Race Over the Past 40 Years – Alpha Architect

Swedroe: The Best Returning Styles – ETF.com

The All Seasons Portfolio (aka The Tony Robbins Portfolio) – Mebane Faber

Hedge Funds: The (Somewhat Tepid) Defense – AQR

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

ETFReplay.com Portfolio for November

The ETFReplay.com Portfolio holdings have been updated for November 2014.  I previously detailed here and here how an investor can use ETFReplay.com to screen for best performing ETFs based on momentum and volatility.

The portfolio begins with a static basket of 15 ETFs. These 15 ETFs are ranked by 6 month total returns (weighted 40%), 3 month total returns (weighted 30%), and 3 month price volatility (weighted 30%). The top 4 are purchased  at the beginning of each month. When a holding drops out of the top 5 ETFs it will be sold and replaced with the next highest ranked ETF.

Bring Your Portfolio Into The 21st Century
Free Access – INO.com Special Report

In addition, ETFs must be ranked above the cash ETF SHY in order to be included in the portfolio, similar to the absolute momentum strategy I profiled here. This modification could help reduce drawdowns during periods of high volatility and/or negative market conditions (see 2008-2009), but it could also reduce total returns by allocating to cash in lieu of an asset class.

The top 5 ranked ETFs based on the 6/3/3 system as of 10/31/14 are below:

6mo/3mo/3mo
VNQ Vanguard MSCI U.S. REIT
PCY PowerShares Emerging Mkts Bond
TLT iShares Barclays Long-Term Trsry
LQD iShares iBoxx Invest Grade Bond
VTI Vanguard Total U.S. Stock Market

The portfolio maintains positions all of its current positions for November- TLT, PCY, LQD and VTI.

Beginning in 2014 we track both the 6/3/3 strategy (same system as 2013) as well as the pure momentum system, which will rank the same basket of 15 ETFs based solely on 6 month price momentum. There is no cash filter in the pure momentum system, volatility ranking, or requirement to limit turnover – the top 4 ETFs based on price momentum will be purchased each month. The portfolio and rankings will be posted on the same spreadsheet as the 6/3/3 strategy.

The top 5 six month momentum ETFs are below:

6 month Momentum
VNQ Vanguard MSCI U.S. REIT
TLT iShares Barclays Long-Term Trsry
VTI Vanguard Total U.S. Stock Market
PCY PowerShares Emerging Mkts Bond
RWX SPDR DJ International Real Estate

The 6 month momentum system maintains all of its current positions for November – TLT, PCY, VTI, and VNQ.

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Ivy & Commission Free ETF Portfolios – November Update

Scott’s Investments provides a daily Ivy Portfolio spreadsheet to track the 10 month moving average signals for two portfolios listed in Mebane Faber’s book The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets. Faber discusses 5, 10, and 20 security portfolios that have trading signals based on long-term moving averages.

The Ivy Portfolio spreadsheet tracks the 5 and 10 ETF Portfolios listed in Faber’s book. When a security is trading below its 10 month simple moving average, the position is listed as “Cash”. When the security is trading above its 10 month simple moving average the positions is listed as “Invested”.

The spreadsheet’s signals update once daily (typically in the late evening) using dividend/split adjusted closing price from Yahoo Finance. The 10 month simple moving average is based on the most recent 10 months including the current month’s most recent daily closing price.  Even though the signals update daily, it is not an endorsement to check signals daily or trade based on daily updates. It simply gives the spreadsheet more versatility for users to check at his or her leisure.

The page also displays the percentage each ETF within the Ivy 10 and Ivy 5 Portfolio is above or below the current 10 month simple moving average, using both adjusted and unadjusted data. If an ETF has paid a dividend or split within the past 10 months, then when comparing the adjusted/unadjusted data you will see differences in the percent an ETF is above/below the 10 month SMA. This could also potentially impact whether an ETF is above or below its 10 month SMA. Regardless of whether you prefer the adjusted or unadjusted data, it is important to remain consistent in your approach. My preference is to use adjusted data when evaluating signals.

Bring Your Portfolio Into The 21st Century
Free Access – INO.com Special Report

The current signals based on October’s adjusted closing prices are below. The spreadsheet also provides quarterly, half year, and yearly return data courtesy of Finviz. Ranks are provided for each ETF based on the average of these three returns. This data may come in useful when overlaying a momentum strategy with a moving average filter:

Ivy

I also provide a “Commission-Free” Ivy Portfolio spreadsheet as an added bonus. This document tracks the 10 month moving averages for four different portfolios designed for TD Ameritrade, Fidelity, Charles Schwab, and Vanguard commission-free ETF offers.

Not all ETFs in each portfolio are commission free, as each broker limits the selection of commission-free ETFs and viable ETFs may not exist in each asset class. Other restrictions and limitations may apply depending on each broker.

Below are the 10 month moving average signals (using adjusted price data) for the commission-free portfolios:

Free1

free2

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Weekend Reads

One quick follow-up to my CEF article from earlier this week – you can run NAV and momentum screens at CEF Connect for free. Investment News also published an article on recent value opportunities in the CEF space.

Claim You’re MarketClub Trial – It’s Already Been Paid For!

Single Best New Site For Investors – Mebane Faber

Under the Hood: Wisdom Tree’s Managed Futures ETF – Attain Capital

From Alpha Architect: Backtesting 13 AAII Value Strategies: What Wins? Plus, Smart Beta is More Expensive Than You Think. and Digging into the Enterprise Multiple Factor.

Valueshares also announced the launch of the ValueShares U.S. Quantitative Value ETF (QVAL), which is advised by Alpha Architect. The strategy is detailed in Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (Wiley Finance)

From ETF.com – Swedroe: Are You Prepared To Face A Bear? and Valuations And Asset Allocation

Facts (and Minds) are Stubborn Things – Above the Market

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

A Value and Momentum Strategy for Closed-End Funds

Closed-end funds (CEFs) are an often overlooked corner of the market. They are publicly traded investment companies which raise a fixed amount of capital via an IPO by issuing a fixed number of shares. They are actively managed, often employ leverage, and typically represent a specific segment of the securities market.  They trade throughout the day on exchanges, just like a stock or ETF, with their share price determined by market demand. However, a key component of CEFs is that they issue a fixed number of shares which represent an interest in the underlying securities of the CEF, which means the CEF not only has a share price but also a Net-Asset-Value (NAV). The value of the underlying securities held by the CEF determines its NAV, while the daily trading prices of a CEF are determined by the market – buyers and sellers of stock in the CEF.  Thus, it is possible for a CEF to trade at a discount or premium to its NAV.

The CEF universe is often inefficient and investors can exploit these inefficiencies by purchasing CEFs trading at discounts to their NAV.  I consider this a potential “value” play – by purchasing a CEF at a discount to its NAV we are essentially purchasing the underlying securities held by the CEF at a discount to their price.

I am not concerned with “why” CEFs may trade at a discount or premium. If there is a dollar laying on the street, I am going to pick it up rather than worry about why nobody else has already done the same.  I want to know if the discount can be systematically exploited over time.

Using Portfolio123 I first created a ranking system which ranked CEFs based on their discount or premium to NAV (a value-only strategy). CEFs with the highest discount to NAV received the highest ranking. The test below sorted CEFs into 20 buckets and as you can see the bucket with the highest discount to NAV produced the highest average annual returns with a fairly consistent decrease in annual returns as the discount to NAV decreased:

Note: All of the subsequent tests were run from 1/2/99 – 10/22/14.

CEF NAV

 

Next, we employ a momentum overlay to the strategy.  Regular readers of my site, Scott’s Investments, know I am a proponent of momentum and trend following strategies. I created a rank system which ranked CEFs based on both their discount to NAV and their 6 month total return, giving us a value and momentum system. CEFs with a high discount to NAV and high 6 month total returns (share price returns, not NAV returns) received the highest rank:

CEF Value and Momentum

We see similar results as the value-only strategy but with even higher returns in the top ranked buckets.

How do these strategies perform real-time, with real securities and turnover? Below is a backtest of the value and momentum system. The first test held 20 CEFs and they were required to have 20-day average share volume of 5000 shares or greater and a closing price greater than $2.  It also assumed 0.5% slippage to account for bid/ask spreads and made transactions at the next day’s closing price to help give a realistic execution of a live strategy. The strategy ranked CEFs every 4 weeks, and those no longer rated in the top 20% were sold and replaced with the highest rated CEF. I chose the 20% threshold to help reduce turnover, thereby limiting expenses. The results:

test1c

Test1

Test1b

The next test used the same parameters as above with one addition. CEFs were required to have positive 6 month total returns. CEFs were sold when their 6 month total returns dropped below 0%.  This filter helped during 2008 to reduce portfolio drawdowns:

test2

test2b

test2c

I have two CEF portfolios currently available on Portfolio123 (search “CEF Value Momentum ” and “CEF Value Momentum 20 “, which will be available in 14 days). They use similar parameters to the ones presented here.

A word of caution on the data presented here. Fifteen years feels like a really long time, but does not give us robust results when backtesting strategies. Secondly, data-snooping is always a concern. Changing parameters of the system impact results and the more complex a system the more susceptible it is to data-snooping. Thus, I tried to keep the systems presented here simple. Finally, taxes and other trading costs will impact results.

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Book Review: Dual Momentum Investing, An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk

I was fortunate to obtain an advance copy of Gary Antonacci’s Dual Momentum Investing: An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk, which is set to release in hardcover at the end of October.  I frequently cite Antonacci’s momentum research and his Optimal Momentum website on Scott’s Investments so I was excited to dive into the book.

The book begins with a brief history of modern finance. To summarize modern finance in a few pages is a daunting task, but overall the book does a good job of providing historical context for the development of momentum investing. The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is taken to task by Antonacci, laying the groundwork for Chapter 2 which explores the the history and evolution of momentum investing. It may surprise some readers that momentum investing is not a new phenomenon, and Antonacci provides several historical examples of successful momentum investors, one of the most famous being Jesse Livermore.

We are warned at the start of Chapter 3 “This and the next chapter are a bit wonkish. Some readers may wish to skip them and move on to Chapter 5.” This is an accurate warning, although I found value in the overview of modern finance and its relationship to dual momentum. Chapter 3 gives a history of mean-variance, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the Fama/French 3 factor model and the 4 factor model. This was a much deeper history than I expected, but also a very good synopsis of modern finance. Chapter 4 provides hypotheses on potential reasons why momentum works, such as herding, anchoring, and the confirmation bias, while acknowledging that ultimately we do not have a definitive explanation for why momentum is so prevalent. Chapters 3 and 4 are very accessible for those with a background in finance or economics. However, the layperson may have difficulty with Chapter 3 and 4 and may want to skip ahead.

Chapters 5 and 6 focus on asset selection and “smart beta” strategies. Antonacci is skeptical of many of today’s popular investment strategies and asset classes. He makes intelligent arguments against hedge funds, private equity, active mutual funds, managed futures and other alternative strategies. He is skeptical of “smart beta” but acknowledges there may be some room for low-cost alternatives to traditional cap-weighted index based strategies.

The last three chapters of the book put the “Dual Momentum” strategy together. In Chapter 8 the reader is presented with a simple strategy rooted in both relative and absolute momentum that can be implemented with three ETFs. Readers are warned against replacing or modifying the strategy with something new. However, Chapter 9 provides some alternative momentum strategy implementations which have historically strong results.

Dual Momentum Investing: An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk is a must-read for individual investors and financial professionals. I was struck by the volume of references and citations. Antonacci has done the heavy lifting for his readers by thoroughly researching the history and data behind momentum investing. The result is a well-researched and overwhelming argument for momentum investing. Readers are rewarded with a simple, robust strategy that anyone can implement.

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com