Category Archives: biof

A Tiny Titan Portfolio for April

One of AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) more popular–and profitable–screens is the ‘O’Shaughnessy Tiny Titans’. Since 1998, the screen has produced cumulative results of over 2000%. However, since 2007 the screen has struggled significantly in down markets. 


The screen looks for companies with a market cap between $25 million and $250 million, a price to sales of less than 1, excludes over the counter stocks, and finally, ranks the top 25 based on the greatest relative strength over the past 52 weeks. This creates a list of highly volatile and risky stocks.
However, there may be some names of interest worthy of further research. In addition, one potential strategy would be to pair the portfolio with a hedge by simultaneously shorting the Russell 2000 via RWM with a portion of your portfolio.
Or, an investor could only participate in the strategy when an index such as the Russell 2000 was above a long term moving average. My suggestion for using a moving average system was inspried in part by Mebane Faber’s The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Marketsand also by Tom Lydon, author of The ETF Trend Following Playbook: Profiting from Trends in Bull or Bear Markets with Exchange Traded Funds.


I ran the AAII Tiny Titans screen using stockscreen123 and came up with the following 25 names. If there is interest among readers, it could be a portfolio I track for free on my blog along with several others already available for free.
I also looked at the 1, 3, 5, and 8 year performance when the portfolio was rebalanced every 4 weeks. The past 1 year the screen returned 105.4% excluding slippage and commissions. The past 3 years the screen returns were approximately -21.4% excluding slippage and commissions. The past 5 years the cumulative return was approximately 64.9% excluding slippage and commission.  The 8 year performance, however, was an outstanding 550% excluding slippage/commissions.  If we add in a 1% assumption for slippage, the 8 year performance is 327.4%.

Whether or not this strategy can sustain its long-term swagger remains to be seen.  A significant market pull-back could result in significant losses in the screen.

Below is the current list ranked on their 52 week return as of 4/16/10. The list will differ from the AAII list because that list was updated 1/31/10. This is not a screen I would blindly invest in without significant further investigation of each name, an acute awareness of the liquidity of each stock, and also without using stop losses and/or a hedge.
If an investor wanted to run this screen–or variations of it– for free he or she could do so using any number of free stock screens such as the one available at Finviz. or the aforementioned stockscreen123.
 

Ticker Name Last Free Trend Analysis MktCap Industry Sector
LBY Libbey Inc. 13.8 Here 222.98 Appliance & Tool Consumer Cyclical
SPCHA Sport Chalet, Inc. 3.33 Here 46.96 Retail (Specialty) Services
BELM Bell Microproducts Inc. 6.98 Here 225.76 Computer Peripherals Technology
LEE Lee Enterprises, Incorporated 4.35 Here 195.2 Printing & Publishing Services
CVGI Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc 8.77 Here 207.56 Auto & Truck Parts Consumer Cyclical
BIOF BioFuel Energy Corp. 2.94 Here 95.76 Chemical Manufacturing Basic Materials
SALM Salem Communications Corp 5.24 Here 124.54 Broadcasting & Cable TV Services
PATK Patrick Industries, Inc. 3.15 Here 28.92 Constr. – Supplies & Fixtures Capital Goods
SYPR Sypris Solutions, Inc. 4.22 Here 83.11 Auto & Truck Parts Consumer Cyclical
MERC Mercer International Inc. 5.73 Here 208.87 Paper & Paper Products Basic Materials
SMTX SMTC Corporation (USA) 3.05 Here 42.53 Semiconductors Technology
CMRG Casual Male Retail Group, Inc 3.8 Here 179.25 Retail (Apparel) Services
NXST Nexstar Broadcasting Group, I 6.47 Here 183.94 Broadcasting & Cable TV Services
RURL Rural/Metro Corporation 6.76 Here 170.67 Misc. Transportation Transportation
GTN Gray Television, Inc. 3.25 Here 158.06 Broadcasting & Cable TV Services
NAVI NaviSite, Inc. 2.78 Here 101.31 Computer Services Technology
KID Kid Brands Inc 9.37 Here 202.18 Recreational Products Consumer Cyclical
LCUT Lifetime Brands, Inc. 13.98 Here 167.97 Personal & Household Prods. Consumer/Non-Cyclical
ESCA Escalade, Inc. 4.16 Here 52.76 Recreational Products Consumer Cyclical
SBSA Spanish Broadcasting System I 1.02 Here 66.3 Broadcasting & Cable TV Services
PUDA Puda Coal, Inc 9.9 Here 192.46 Coal Energy
NNBR NN, Inc. 6.93 Here 114.46 Misc. Fabricated Products Basic Materials
NAVR Navarre Corporation 2.19 Here 79.64 Software & Programming Technology
AGM Federal Agricultural Mortgage 15.63 Here 158.55 Consumer Financial Services Financial
WSTL Westell Technologies Inc. 1.48 Here 99.78 Communications Equipment Technology

Tiny Titan Stock Portfolio for March

One of AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) more popular–and profitable–screens is the ‘O’Shaughnessy Tiny Titans’. Since 1998 the screen has produced cumulative results of over 2000%. However, since 2007 the screen has struggled significantly in down markets. 


The screen looks for companies with a market cap between $25 million and $250 million, a price to sales of less than 1, excludes over the counter stocks, and finally, ranks the top 25 based on the greatest relative strength over the past 52 weeks. This creates a list of highly volatile and risky stocks. However, there may be some names of interest worthy of further research. In addition, one potential strategy would be to pair the portfolio with a hedge by simultaneously shorting the Russell 2000 via RWM with a portion of your portfolio. Or, an investor could only participate in the strategy when an index such as the Russell 2000 was above a long term moving average. My suggestion for using a moving average system was inspried in part by Mebane Faber’s The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets and also by Tom Lydon, author of The ETF Trend Following Playbook: Profiting from Trends in Bull or Bear Markets with Exchange Traded Funds.


I ran the AAII Tiny Titans screen using stockscreen123 and came up with the following 25 names. If there is interest among readers, it could be a portfolio I track for free on my blog along with several others already available for free. I also looked at the 3 and 5 year performance when the portfolio was rebalanced every 4 weeks. The past 3 years the screen returns were approximately -30% excluding slippage and commissions. The past 5 years the cumulative return was approximately 56% excluding slippage and commission. Thus, this screen struggled mightily in negative markets.
Below is the current list ranked on their 52 week return as of 3/17/10. The list will differ from the AAII list because that list was updated 1/31/10. This is not a screen I would blindly invest in without significant further investigation of each name, an acute awareness of the liquidity of each stock, and also without using stop losses and/or a hedge. If an investor wanted to run this screen–or variations of it– for free he or she could do so using any number of free stock screens such as the one available at Finviz. or the aforementioned stockscreen123.





Ticker Name Last Free Trend Analysis MktCap
SPCHA Sport Chalet, Inc. 2.65 Here 38.13
SALM Salem Communications Corp 4.92 Here 118.61
CVGI Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc 6.68 Here 161.41
LBY Libbey Inc. 12.9 Here 199.6
MGPI MGP Ingredients, Inc. 7.78 Here 128.06
BELM Bell Microproducts Inc. 5.2 Here 168.4
ZOOM Zoom Technologies, Inc. 6.86 Here 51.08
LCUT Lifetime Brands, Inc. 12 Here 140.07
WNC Wabash National Corporation 7.65 Here 210.3
ATSG Air Transport Services Group 2.54 Here 163.73
SBSA Spanish Broadcasting System I 0.98 Here 61.7
LEE Lee Enterprises, Incorporated 3.47 Here 160.2
BONT The Bon-Ton Stores, Inc. 12.54 Here 235.14
BIOF BioFuel Energy Corp. 2.83 Here 95.29
VVTV ValueVision Media, Inc. 3.59 Here 117.38
AHC A. H. Belo Corporation 7.93 Here 161.48
CMRG Casual Male Retail Group, Inc 3.57 Here 184.42
MERC Mercer International Inc. 5.73 Here 213.19
ROIAK Radio One, Inc. 3.3 Here 181.69
LNET LodgeNet Interactive Corp. 6.46 Here 141.99
NXST Nexstar Broadcasting Group, I 4.8 Here 141.87
SGA Saga Communications, Inc. 26 Here 102.97
PATK Patrick Industries, Inc. 2.99 Here 26.85
JRN Journal Communications, Inc. 4.01 Here 218.53
NAVI NaviSite, Inc. 2.99 Here 108.96

No positions in stocks mentioned

Tiny Titans Portfolio with a 200 Day Benchmark

On Friday I detailed AAII’s Tiny Titans stock screen.  Using the beta stockscreen123 I backtested the Tiny Titans portfolio only when the Russell 2000 was above its 200 day moving average.  The goal is to reduce potential drawdowns by only investing in the strategy when the overall market is in a long term uptrend. By adding this simple rule, the Tiny Titans screen avoided some of the significant drawdowns in 2007 and 2008.  Other potential trading strategies may work better on the individual companies in the Tiny Titans list, such as the one I detailed in-depth here which involves placing stop losses on individual positions.

The 8 year performance of the strategy results in a $100 investment turning into $349.70 versus $137.30 in the Russell 2000 (dividends excluded) when rebalanced every 4 weeks and excluding slippage/commissions:

A 5 year investment turned to $138.30 versus $100.20 in RUT.

A 3 year investment turned into $84.10 versus $77.30 in RUT.  It suffered a large drawdown in August/September 2008 and October 2007 when the Russell 2000 was briefly above the 200 day moving average but suffered large negative months.

The current list of stocks matching the criteria are:

Ticker Name Last Free Trend Analysis MktCap
VVTV ValueVision Media, Inc. 3.93 Here 127.08
ROIAK Radio One, Inc. 3.3 Here 180.6
LEE Lee Enterprises, Incorporated 3.8 Here 170.51
ATSG Air Transport Services Group 2.42 Here 153.57
LNET LodgeNet Interactive Corp. 5.99 Here 135
NAVI NaviSite, Inc. 2.89 Here 107.81
CMRG Casual Male Retail Group, Inc 3.17 Here 149.51
LBY Libbey Inc. 10.32 Here 156.41
MGPI MGP Ingredients, Inc. 7.6 Here 126.73
BIOF BioFuel Energy Corp. 2.8 Here 95.29
SPCHA Sport Chalet, Inc. 2.02 Here 28.53
SALM Salem Communications Corp 4.92 Here 116.48
IHR Interstate Hotels & Resorts, 2.25 Here 72.35
PXLW Pixelworks, Inc. 3.4 Here 45.56
BONT The Bon-Ton Stores, Inc. 8.44 Here 156.63
CVGI Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc 4.99 Here 113.51
BELM Bell Microproducts Inc. 4.57 Here 145.76
KV.A K-V Pharmaceutical Company 3.08 Here 153.84
IEC IEC Electronics Corp. 6.13 Here 54.8
TXIC Tongxin International Ltd 8.15 Here 100.32
SBSA Spanish Broadcasting System I 0.74 Here 48.06
KTCC Key Tronic Corporation 5.62 Here 56.71
NXST Nexstar Broadcasting Group, I 4.39 Here 124.81
WILC G. Willi-Food International L 6.96 Here 71.46
ARTX Arotech Corporation 1.89 Here 27.2

Tiny Titan Stocks

AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) released their January 31st screen results this week.  One of their more popular–and profitable–screens is the ‘O’Shaughnessy Tiny Titans’.  Since 1998 the screen has produced cumulative results of over 2000%.  However, since 2007 the screen has struggled significantly along with the overall market.

The screen looks for companies with a market cap between $25 million and $250 million, a price to sales of less than 1, excludes over the counter stocks, and finally ranks the top 25 based on the greatest relative strength over the past 52 weeks.  This creates a list of highly volatile and risky stocks.  However, there may be some names of interest worthy of further research.  In addition, one potential strategy would be to pair the portfolio with a hedge by simultaneously shorting the Russell 2000 via RWM with a portion of your portfolio.  Or, an investor could only participate in the strategy when an index such as the Russell 2000 was above a long term moving average.  My suggestion for using a moving average system was inspried in part by Mebane Faber’s The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets and also by Tom Lydon, author of The ETF Trend Following Playbook: Profiting from Trends in Bull or Bear Markets with Exchange Traded Funds.

I ran the AAII Tiny Titans screen using stockscreen123 and came up with the following 25 names. If there is interest among readers, it could be a portfolio I track for free on my blog along with several others already available for free. I also looked at the 3 and 5 year performance when the portfolio was rebalanced every 4 weeks.  The past 3 years the screen returns were approximately -33%  excluding slippage and commissions.  The past 5 years the cumulative return was approximately 33%.  Thus, this screen struggled mightily in negative markets.  Below is the current list ranked on their 52 week return as of 2/18/10.  The list will differ from the AAII list because that list was updated 1/31/10. Personally, this is not a screen I would blindly invest in without further investigation of each  name and also without using stop losses and a hedge. If an investor wanted to run this screen for free he or she could do so using any number of free stock screens such as the one available at Finviz.

No position in the stocks mentioned

Ticker Name Last Free Trend Analysis MktCap
VVTV ValueVision Media, Inc. 3.93 Here 127.08
ROIAK Radio One, Inc. 3.3 Here 180.6
LEE Lee Enterprises, Incorporated 3.8 Here 170.51
ATSG Air Transport Services Group 2.42 Here 153.57
LNET LodgeNet Interactive Corp. 5.99 Here 135
NAVI NaviSite, Inc. 2.89 Here 107.81
CMRG Casual Male Retail Group, Inc 3.17 Here 149.51
LBY Libbey Inc. 10.32 Here 156.41
MGPI MGP Ingredients, Inc. 7.6 Here 126.73
BIOF BioFuel Energy Corp. 2.8 Here 95.29
SPCHA Sport Chalet, Inc. 2.02 Here 28.53
SALM Salem Communications Corp 4.92 Here 116.48
IHR Interstate Hotels & Resorts, 2.25 Here 72.35
PXLW Pixelworks, Inc. 3.4 Here 45.56
BONT The Bon-Ton Stores, Inc. 8.44 Here 156.63
CVGI Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc 4.99 Here 113.51
BELM Bell Microproducts Inc. 4.57 Here 145.76
KV.A K-V Pharmaceutical Company 3.08 Here 153.84
IEC IEC Electronics Corp. 6.13 Here 54.8
TXIC Tongxin International Ltd 8.15 Here 100.32
SBSA Spanish Broadcasting System I 0.74 Here 48.06
KTCC Key Tronic Corporation 5.62 Here 56.71
NXST Nexstar Broadcasting Group, I 4.39 Here 124.81
WILC G. Willi-Food International L 6.96 Here 71.46
ARTX Arotech Corporation 1.89 Here 27.2