Graham Value Stock Portfolio Update

In January 2012 I announced a new portfolio, a Benjamin Graham “inspired” value stock portfolio.  The purpose of the hypothetical portfolio is to track returns for a portfolio of 15 stocks selected based on a variety of valuation metrics. I originally intended to update the portfolio monthly; however, in the spirit of creating a lower turnover, value-driven portfolio it is now updated quarterly.

I have also added an additional criteria to limit turnover in the portfolio (see below). The Graham portfolio is an attempt to add a value strategy to Scott’s Investments, which is otherwise focused on momentum, trend, income and market timing strategies.

The criteria used to select the stocks are listed below.  The tool used to perform the screen and backtests are courtesy of  Portfolio123 (“P123″).

The actual screen factors are below:

  • Liquidity filter: No OTC Stocks
  • Market capitalization > $100 million
  • Eliminate companies classified in the Miscellaneous Financial Services Industry, most of which are investment companies and funds and not the kind of stocks this all-star tended to seek
  • Current ratio must be at least 1.5
  • Long-term debt must be no higher than 10% above working capital
  • EPS must be above breakeven in each of the last four quarters and in each of the last five annual periods
  • Trailing 12 month EPS most be above EPS in the latest annual period
  • EPS in the latest annual period must be above EPS in the prior year and five years ago
  • The company must have paid common dividends in the last 12 months

The ranking system used as a basis for selecting the top 15 based among those stocks that pass the Graham screen are below:

  • Valuation – 60% of total
  • Trailing 12 month P/E (15% of this category)
  • Price-to-Book (15% of this category)
  • Price-to-Tangible Book Value (35% of this category)
  • Operating P/E, defined as Market Capitalization divided by Business Income, which is Sales minus Cost of Goods sold minus Selling, General & Administrative Expense and omits unusual items (35% of this category)
  • Earnings – 40% of total
  • 5-year EPS Growth Rate (50% of this category)
  • EPS Stability, defined as the standard deviation of EPS over the past 16 quarters, lower being better (50% of this category)

Stocks will now be sold when they drop below the 75th percentile ranking based on the ranking system above. Improvements in the screening and testing platform (via Portfolio123) allows a change in the sell/turnover rule from previous updates.

I began tracking this portfolio real-time on January 13th, 2012. As of April 15th, 2014 it is up over 43%. A real-world application of this portfolio could also utilize stop losses in order to prevent large drawdowns in single positions. However, for the purposes of tracking the portfolio results, all positions are bought and held until rebalancing.

Below is a 14+ year backtest results for this screen  using a quarterly rebalance and .50% slippage to help account for bid/ask spreads. Backtests include the 75th percentile sell rule (stocks will only be sold when they drop below the 75th percentile ranking):

(test data courtesy of Portfolio123)

Graham

graham2
The stocks being sold 4/15/2014 are listed below:

Symbol Name Purchase Date  Percentage Gain/Loss
AGU Agrium 1/15/2014 -1.72%
AGI Alamos Gold Inc 4/15/2013 -9.38%
CVI CVR Energy 1/15/2014 13.08%
HP Helmerich & Payne Inc. 7/17/2012 145.17%
CVX Chevron 1/15/2014 0.94%
TESS TESSCO Technologies Inc 7/17/2012 62.17%
CF CF Industries Holdings Inc 1/15/2013 10.99%

The current portfolio is listed below.

Symbol Name
BGFV* Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp
BWC* The Babcock & Wilcox Company
HFC HollyFrontier Corp
CHRM Charm Communications
CLMS* Calamos Asset Management Inc.
CSH* Cash America International
CTCM* CTC Media, Inc
HUM Humana
JST Jinpan International
SWM Schweitzer-Mauduit Intl Inc
WMK Weis Markets Inc.
RCKY Rocky Brands
SCVL Shoe Carnival Inc.
DDS* Dillard’s Inc.
KALU* Kaiser Aluminum Corporation

*new position as of 4/15/2014

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Monday Readings

From ETF.com – Faber: Own Most-Beaten-Down Stocks, Swedroe: Quality Factor in Global Scope, Destroying Smart Beta: Part 1

Quant Tools Field of Dreams – Turnkey Analyst

A Study in Diversification – Following the Trend

PIMCO’s Bill Gross Picks Up the Pieces – Businessweek

Every Central Bank for Itself (pdf), Risk On, Regardless – John Mauldin

Cluster Shrinkage – GestaltU

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Dual Momentum ETF Portfolio

In February 2013 I created a  “Dual ETF Momentum” spreadsheet. The strategy was inspired by a paper written by Gary Antonacci and available on Optimal Momentum.

The spreadsheet is available on Scott’s Investment’s here. The objective of the spreadsheet is to track four pairs of ETFs and provide an “Invested” signal for the ETF in each pair with the highest relative momentum.

Relative momentum is gauged by the 12 month total returns of each ETF. The 12 month total returns of each ETF is also compared to a short-term Treasury ETF (a “cash” filter) in the form of iShares Barclays 1-3 Treasury Bond ETF (SHY). In order to have an “Invested” signal the ETF with the highest relative strength must also have 12-month total returns greater than the 12-month total returns of SHY. This is the absolute momentum filter which is detailed in depth by Antonacci, and has historically helped increase risk-adjusted returns.

An “average” return signal for each ETF is also available on the spreadsheet. The concept is the same as the 12-month relative momentum. However, the “average” return signal uses the average of the past 3, 6, and 12 (“3/6/12″) month total returns for each ETF. The “invested” signal is based on the ETF with the highest relative momentum for the past 3, 6 and 12 months. The ETF with the highest average relative strength must also have an average 3/6/12 total returns greater than the 3/6/12 total returns of the cash ETF.

Portfolio123 was used to test a similar strategy using the same portfolios and combined momentum score (“3/6/12″).  The test results were posted in the 2013 Year in Review.

Below are the four portfolios along with current signals:

Return data courtesy of Finviz
Equity Representative ETF Signal based on 1 year returns Signal based on average returns
US Equities VTI Invested Invested
International Equities VEU
Cash SHY
Credit Risk Representative ETF Signal based on 1 year returns Signal based on average returns
High Yield Bond HYG Invested Invested
Interm Credit Bond CIU
Cash SHY
Real-Estate Risk Representative ETF Signal based on 1 year returns Signal based on average returns
Equity REIT VNQ Invested
Mortgage REIT REM
Cash SHY Invested
Economic Stress Representative ETF Signal based on 1 year returns Signal based on average returns
Gold GLD
Long-term Treasuries TLT Invested
Cash SHY Invested

As an added bonus, the spreadsheet also has four additional sheets using a dual momentum strategy with broker specific commission-free ETFs for TD Ameritrade, Charles Schwab, Fidelity, and Vanguard. It is important to note that each broker may have additional trade restrictions and the terms of their commission-free ETFs could change in the future

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

April High Yield Dividend Champion Portfolio

The High Yield Dividend Champion stock portfolio has been updated for April. The portfolio is tracked publicly as a continuous hypothetical portfolio with a starting balance of $100,000 on Scott’s Investments.

The High Yield Dividend Champion Portfolio uses a small number of historically relevant ideas to create a simple, yet powerful investment plan. As I previously detailed, “Some studies have shown that the, highest yielding, low payout stocks perform better over time than stocks with higher payouts and lower yields.”

Looking for a Hedged Version and a larger pool of stocks? Visit Portfolio123

The High Yield Dividend Champion Portfolio attempts to capture the best high yield, low payout stocks with a history of raising dividends. There are numerous ways to rank high yield/low payout stocks. The screening process for this portfolio starts with the “Dividend Champions” as compiled by DRIP Investing. The list is comprised of stocks that have increased their dividend payout for at least 25 consecutive years.

To date the portfolio is up over 85%.  I mentioned in the 2013 year in review that valuation of high yield stocks was a concern. In January’s update I noted that “I have lowered my expectations for future returns of US equities and high yield stocks.”

I added a valuation filter to the portfolio starting in 2014.  We still begin with the Dividend Champion list, which is first sorted by yield and the lowest 50% yielding stocks are eliminated. Eliminating the lowest yielding stocks ensures only stocks with a relatively “high” yield make the portfolio.

The remaining stocks are then assigned a rank based on their yield (the higher the yield the higher the rank), payout ratio (the lower the payout ratio the higher the rank), 3 year dividend growth rate, and price-earnings (P/E) ratio.  Extra weight is given to yield and payout ratio rankings.

The top 10 stocks based on the new ranking system make the portfolio. Stocks will be sold at the re-balance date (generally around the 5th of the month) when they drop out of the top 15 (to limit turnover) and are replaced with the next highest rated stock.

There is turnover in one position this month.  Helmerich & Payne Inc. (HP) was sold for a capital gain of 63%+ and an original purchase date of 7/5/13. The yield for HP has dropped below the minimum threshold as a result of its significant price increase in recent months. Old Republic International (ORI) replaces HP. It is currently ranked fourth using our ranking methodology.

The portfolio has now grown to a point where rebalancing positions is a concern.  The sale of HP generated over $30,000 in a $187,000+ portfolio.  The question becomes whether we put all of the proceeds into the new position, ORI, making it the largest holding, or allocate to both ORI and existing positions for a more balanced allocation.  The original portfolio allocated evenly among 10 positions. It is intended to be a real-world example of a mechanical investing system, so I have not rebalanced to this point to keep potential real-world fees and taxes to a minimum.

Given the size of the HP transaction, now would be an optimal time to balance the system.  To keep commissions and taxes to a minimum, I will not be selling any other positions in the portfolio. Rather, we will  use cash generated from HP to allocate approximately 10% of the portfolio to ORI, and we will purchase additional shares of the portfolio’s 4 smallest holdings – CVX, MO, UVV, and TMP.

The top 15 stocks based on my ranking methodology are below and displayed in order of their overall ranking (figures are March month-end):

Name Symbol Yield Payout 3-yr P/E
Chevron Corp. CVX 3.36 36.10 11.15 10.73
AT&T Inc. T 5.25 54.12 2.33 10.31
Universal Corp. UVV 3.65 39.08 2.08 10.71
Old Republic International ORI 4.45 47.40 1.43 10.65
Eagle Financial Services EFSI 3.30 36.19 3.27 10.95
Tompkins Financial Corp. TMP 3.27 46.11 5.03 14.11
McDonald’s Corp. MCD 3.31 58.38 11.35 17.66
ExxonMobil Corp. XOM 2.58 34.19 12.24 13.25
Altria Group Inc. MO 5.13 84.96 8.23 16.56
Community Trust Banc. CTBI 3.09 44.44 1.49 14.40
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. WMT 2.51 39.59 15.27 15.76
Cincinnati Financial CINF 3.62 56.23 1.19 15.55
Target Corp. TGT 2.84 55.84 23.44 19.65
Weyco Group Inc. WEYS 2.66 44.44 4.13 16.68
PepsiCo Inc. PEP 3.14 60.65 6.39 19.33

The current re-balanced portfolio is below:

 

Position Shares Average Purchase Price Initial Purchase Date Cost Basis Current Value Percentage Gain/Loss Excluding Dividends
CVX 138 108.06 12/6/2012 $14,912.28 $16,394.40 9.94%
MCD 167 96.54 1/3/2014 $16,122.18 $16,344.29 1.38%
ORI 1145 16.22 4/4/2014 $18,571.90 $18,571.90 0.00%
UVV 332 46.47 4/5/2012 $15,428.04 $17,781.92 15.26%
TGT 321 55.07 2/5/2014 $17,677.47 $19,625.94 11.02%
CINF 375 47.1 2/5/2014 $17,662.50 $18,071.25 2.31%
XOM 196 89.01 4/5/2013 $17,445.96 $19,082.56 9.38%
MO 449 34.64 3/5/2013 $15,553.36 $16,868.93 8.46%
T 663 32.34 3/6/2014 $21,441.42 $23,569.65 9.93%
TMP 362 50.16 1/3/2014 $18,157.92 $17,759.72 -2.19%

$3613 will be kept in cash in case rebalancing is needed in the near future.

If you enjoy these free tools, please consider making a donation on the home page of Scott’s Investments using the Paypal link in the upper-right corner!

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Thursday Reads

Below is my investment reading list for this week:

From ETF.com:

Swedroe: A Closer Look at CAPE Ratio
Swedroe: Beware Lure of Market Timing
ETF Expense Ratios Don’t Matter

Why ETFs are More Tax Efficient than Mutual Funds & Do Rituals Make You a Better Investor - Turnkey Analyst

The Best and Worst Things About Investing – The Reformed Broker

Is the Stock Market Cheap? & The Evolution of Optimal Lookback Horizon – Advisor Perspectives

Are Stocks Pricey or Cheap? The Big Picture

Why Value Investing is So Hard (Russian Edition) – Meb Faber

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Ivy & Commission Free ETF Portfolios – April Update

Early in 2012  Scott’s Investments added a daily Ivy Portfolio spreadsheet to track the 10 month moving average signals for two portfolios listed in Mebane Faber’s book The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets. Faber discusses 5, 10, and 20 security portfolios that have trading signals based on long-term moving averages. The Ivy Portfolio spreadsheet tracks the 5 and 10 ETF Portfolios listed in Faber’s book. When a security is trading below its 10 month simple moving average, the position is listed as “Cash”. When the security is trading above its 10 month simple moving average the positions is listed as “Invested”.

The spreadsheet’s signals update once daily (typically in the late evening) using dividend/split adjusted closing price from Yahoo Finance. The 10 month simple moving average is based on the most recent 10 months including the current month’s most recent daily closing price.  Even though the signals update daily, it is not an endorsement to check signals daily. It simply gives the spreadsheet more versatility for users to check at his or her leisure.

The page also displays the percentage each ETF within the Ivy 10 and Ivy 5 Portfolio is above or below the current 10 month simple moving average, using both adjusted and unadjusted data. If an ETF has paid a dividend or split within the past 10 months, then when comparing the adjusted/unadjusted data you will see differences in the percent an ETF is above/below the 10 month SMA. This could also potentially impact whether an ETF is above or below its 10 month SMA. Regardless of whether you prefer the adjusted or unadjusted data, it is important to remain consistent in your approach. My preference is to use adjusted data when evaluating signals.

Top 50 Trending Stocks

The current signals based on March’s closing prices are below.  US equities continue to show strength although strength is dispersed broadly, with all 10 ETFs above their 10 month moving average.

The first table is based on adjusted historical data and the second table is based on unadjusted price data. Adjusted data is my preferred method for averaging prices; however, if you use a charting or financial site which uses unadjusted prices you may see moving average signals closer to those in the unadjusted table:

adjusted

unadjusted

I also provide a “Commission-Free” Ivy Portfolio spreadsheet as an added bonus. This document tracks the 10 month moving averages for four different portfolios designed for TD Ameritrade, Fidelity, Charles Schwab, and Vanguard commission-free ETF offers.

Not all ETFs in each portfolio are commission free, as each broker limits the selection of commission-free ETFs and viable ETFs may not exist in each asset class. Other restrictions and limitations may apply depending on each broker.

Below are the 10 month moving average signals (using adjusted price data) for the commission-free portfolios:

free1

 

free2

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

ETFReplay Portfolios for April

The ETFReplay.com Portfolio holdings have been updated for April 2014.  I previously detailed here and here how an investor can use ETFReplay.com to screen for best performing ETFs based on momentum and volatility.

The portfolio begins with a static basket of 15 ETFs. These 15 ETFs are ranked by 6 month total returns (weighted 40%), 3 month total returns (weighted 30%), and 3 month price volatility (weighted 30%). The top 4 are purchased  at the beginning of each month. When a holding drops out of the top 5 ETFs it will be sold and replaced with the next highest ranked ETF.

Start Algo Trading Here

In addition, ETFs must be ranked above the cash ETF SHY in order to be included in the portfolio, similar to the absolute momentum strategy I profiled here. This modification could help reduce drawdowns during periods of high volatility and/or negative market conditions (see 2008-2009), but it could also reduce total returns by allocating to cash in lieu of an asset class.

The top 5 ranked ETFs based on the 6/3/3 system as off 3/31/14 are below:

6mo/3mo/3mo
DBA PowerShares DB Agricultural Commodities
VNQ Vanguard MSCI U.S. REIT
HYG iShares iBoxx High-Yield Corp Bond
LQD iShares iBoxx Invest Grade Bond
PCY PowerShares Emerging Mkts Bond

For April the portfolio maintains positions in DBA, VNQ, and HYG. VTI was sold for a gain of 11.20% after purchasing it originally on 9/30/13. The proceeds were used to purchase iShares iBoxx Invest Grade Bond (LQD).

Beginning in 2014 we track both the 6/3/3 strategy (same system as 2013) as well as the pure momentum system, which will rank the same basket of 15 ETFs based solely on 6 month price momentum. There is no cash filter in the pure momentum system, volatility ranking, or requirement to limit turnover – the top 4 ETFs based on price momentum will be purchased each month. The portfolio and rankings will be posted on the same spreadsheet as the 6/3/3 strategy.

The top 5 six month momentum ETFs are below:

6 month Momentum
VTI Vanguard MSCI Total U.S. Stock Market
DBA PowerShares DB Agricultural Commodities
VNQ Vanguard MSCI U.S. REIT
HYG iShares iBoxx High-Yield Corp Bond
EFA iShares MSCI EAFE

For April the portfolio maintains positions in VTI, VNQ and EFA. RWX was sold for a loss of .75% and purchase date of 2/28/14. Proceeds were used to purchase DBA.

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Mid-Week Reads

Below is my mid-week reading list:

Gold’s 3000 Year Backtest – A New World Record! & Is Smart Beta BullSh!+? Turnkey Analyst

Jeremy Grantham: The Fed is Killing the Recovery – Fortune

Beating the Index with Minimum Rules – Following the Trend

Swedroe: Explaining Momentum Factors & Ferri: 3 Big Questions to Ask an Advisor - ETF.com

Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis & China’s Minsky Moment? John Mauldin

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Revisiting Two Simple ETF & Mutual Fund Trading Strategies

Two of my most popular posts of all-time are A Very Simple Relative Strength ETF Rotation System and Dual Momentum Investing With Mutual Funds. The simplicity of the systems and ease of implementation are the most appealing aspects of the article and most likely created their popularity.

Today  I revisit both systems, with updated results and modifications. The “Very Simple Relative Strength” system originally  ranked GLD (Gold), SPY (S&P 500), and SHY (Barclays Low Duration Treasury ETF, a close substitute for cash) based 40% on the 3 month return, 30% on the 20 day return, and 30% based on the 20 day volatility.

I modified the test slightly to invest on the close of the next day (for example, i.e. On the close of February 1st 2011, the backtest will invest in the picks from January 31st 2011). 

Using ETFReplay.com, we get the following results from January 1st 2005 to March 21st, 2014 when updating monthly:

Very Simple Original ETFReplay

SHY has low volatility and low potential returns. What if we substitute iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) for SHY?

The results are below:

Very Simple ETFReplay2

We can also test this system using Portfolio123.  Using a 4-week rebalance and the next day’s opening price (as opposed to end of the month and next day’s closing price) we get similar results:

Very Simple P123

The second system, Dual Momentum Investing with Mutual Funds, purchases one mutual fund in 3 sub-portfolios and equal weights the three portfolios to create a “complete” portfolio. Purchases are determined by the one fund in each portfolio which has the highest trailing 6 month returns. The strategy rebalances each month, selling the current holding if it is no longer the top ranked fund in its portfolio and replacing it with the fund which has the highest momentum.

The first portfolio is an equity portfolio consisting of the following:

Vanguard Emerging Markets – VEIEX

Vanguard Short-Term Treasury – VFISX

Vanguard Total Stock Market – VTSMX

The second portfolio is a bond portfolio consisting of the following:

T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Bond – PREMX

Vanguard Long-Term Investment Grade – VWESX

Vanguard Short-Term Treasury - VFISX

The third portfolio is a real asset portfolio consisting of the following:

Vanguard Short-Term Treasury - VFISX

Vanguard Precious Metals & Mining – VGPMX

Vanguard REIT – VGSIX

The benchmark for the tests is the Vanguard 60-40 Balanced Fund (VBINX) which offers a better representation of  a complete portfolio when compared to a pure equity benchmark like SPY.  The strategy detailed above has offered strong historical returns since 2003, at comparable volatility and much lower drawdowns compared to a balanced 60/40 mutual fund. Also note the Sharpe Ratio in excess of 1:

Dual Momentum with Mutual Funds

 

However, as I noted in 2012, the system has underwhelmed since 2010:

Dual Momentum with Mutual Funds 2010

 

Simplicity, while not always sexy, can offer tangible investment strategies for strong risk-adjusted returns. These two systems are not meant to be optimal and there are many worthy alternatives and variations. They may under-perform buy-and-hold investments for extended periods of time and past results are no guarantee of future returns.  However, they still demonstrate potential alternatives to buy-and-hold.

More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on Mutual Funds at Wikinvest
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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Sunday Readings

Below is my Sunday night investment reading list:

The problem with 401(k)s, dear reader, is you. Washington Post

A Man and His Signals – The Reformed Broker

This Undervalued Energy Stock Could Soar

The Black Box: Eyewitness Testimony and Investment Models - Gestaltu

Swedroe: Unpacking Buffett’s Genius & The Perils of the Carry Trade & Mulrane: A Risk Parity Plan Using ETFs - IndexUniverse

Free Trend Following Trading System Rules – Following the Trend

Are You Trying Too Hard – Turnkey Analyst

Seth Klarman: Investors Downplaying Risk “Never Turns Out Well” and Income Inequality and Social Mobility – John Mauldin

 

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com