Gold Ready to Move

Peter Brandt had another nice gold and silver update today. I tend to agree with his analysis, that we are at a critical technical juncture with gold.  The weekly chart for GLD (SPDR Gold Trust ETF) looks almost identical to last week’s chart; in other words, nothing much has changed:

A potential head and shoulders pattern is setting up, which could mean we challenge the highs from 2011. However, we could just as easily see a big move to $135 – $140 if the $156-$157 level does not hold.

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Investment Articles

Below are some investment related articles I am reading this week. The primary reason I originally started this site was to organize bookmarks and interesting articles related to investing and economics.  I try to keep this tradition alive every week by sharing articles I am reading. Here is today’s list:

Understanding the Basic Language of Option Trading – JW Jones

 What Has Worked in Investing (pdf) – Tweedy, Browne Company

Media Headlines Will Lead You to Ruin – Lance Roberts

Ben Graham’s Curse on Gold (pdf) – John Mauldin

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U.S. long bonds: Buyer Beware! Prieur du Plessis

 Macro Tides: In the Garden of Europe – The Big Picture

There has never been a better time to be an individual investors – Abnormal Returns

What’s Greek for ‘No End in Sight’? Satyajit Das

S&P 500 Cheapest to Bonds on Zero Fed Rates – Bloomberg

 Unusual Drawdown Risk – John Hussman

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

The Short and Long-term Picture for Gold

Periodically on Scott’s Investments I analyze the technical picture for Gold and its corresponding ETF, GLD (SPDR Gold Shares ETF). Before I get to the technical picture, let’s look briefly at money supply and Gold’s long-term fundamentals.

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Gold can act as a hedge against quantitative easing  and currency debasement because it is viewed as an alternative to fiat currencies.  Looking at the chart below, courtesy of Chris Vermeulen via the St Louis Fed, we see the long-term expansion of M2 money supply is in a long-term uptrend:

A decline in a velocity of M2 money stock as shown below tells us in simple terms that the M2 money supply is not turning over as quickly as it was at its peak in the mid 90s:

Vermeulen argues regarding gold and silver (SLV) “the intermediate to longer term it is unlikely that we have seen the highs of this bull market for either metal. As long as central banks around the world continue to print money and expand their balance sheets gold and silver will remain in a long-term bull market.”

I would tend to agree with the intermediate to long-term picture. Nothing goes up forever and it is important to remain flexible and open-minded as conditions change and new evidence presents itself. However I do not think the bull market in gold has run its course, especially with the Federal Reserve stating it will keep rates at low levels for the foreseeable future.

In the short-term we can use technical analysis to guide us. Gold and GLD struggled mightily in December  but rebounded in January.  With the strong sell-off in December Gold’s long-term uptrend looked to be in trouble, however the January rebound, albeit on lighter volume, staved off a complete breakdown.  This trend has continued in February, with GLD up 12.52% year-to-date.

I continue to monitor the upward channel in GLD that began in 2008. Of note is the brief breakout of the channel in 2011, which resulted in a strong sell-off the subsequent month, bringing GLD back within the channel. In December 2011 there was a serious threat of a breakout below the channel, but GLD regained its footing in January and has gravitated closer to the top of the channel this month:

Since 2009 the 10 month simple moving average (in blue) has closely aligned itself with the bottom of the channel.  GLD currently resides above the 10 month moving average, although the break below the 10 month SMA in December was the first significant break below the average since 2008.

In the short-term today’s move in GLD was noteworthy and we could be near a short-term breakout depending on Wednesday’s action. February’s high is $171.23 and GLD is touching the trendline (yellow line) that includes February’s high. We actually closed just above this line today (Tuesday), so tomorrow we could be set for a higher move this week if resistance at $171.23 is broken. The next price target would be the resistance level (red line) around $175. Price support (green) in the daily chart is in the $166.50 – $166.60 range:

No current position in GLD

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Testing the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio with Emerging Markets

In response to my Harry Browne Permanent ETF Portfolio article from last week, David Jackson of Seeking Alpha wondered if the portfolio had been tested with Emerging Markets ETFs as opposed to US equities. His theory is the Emerging Markets have added beta over US stocks and may perform better in the future due to higher expected GDP growth.

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I created a second Harry Browne Permanent ETF Portfolio in ETF Replay and then used their platform to test the results.  The portfolio consists of a 25% equal allocation to EEM (MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund), TLT (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury), SHY (iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Fund), and GLD (SPDR Gold Trust).   This allocation is identical to the portfolio in my “original” Harry Browne portfolio with one exception: EEM has been substituted for SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF).

If an investor bought the Emerging Markets Permanent Portfolio on January 3rd, 2005 and held until February 17th, 2012, the total return was 128.4% (12.3% CAGR) and 12.7% volatility (all returns discussed exclude commissions, taxes, and slippage). The original Harry Browne Portfolio (SPY/SHY/TLT/GLD) would have returned 105.6% (10.7% CAGR) at 9.3% volatility:

The max drawdown on the Emerging Market Permanent portfolio was 26.15% versus 16.17% for the original version.  The increased volatility and drawdown of the Emerging Market version is not surprising since emerging market equities have traditionally had higher volatility than large cap US equities.

In my original article I also tested the 10 month moving average system popularized in recent years by Mebane Faber in The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets. When an ETF in the portfolio was below its 10 month moving average at month-end, the position was sold and held in “cash” (SHY was used as a substitute for cash). When it closed the month above its 10 month moving average, the ETF was purchased at the stated allocation.

To properly test the moving average system I had to begin the test at the beginning of 2006 since GLD did not have adequate trading history to generate a 10 month moving average in 2005.  In order to properly compare strategies (moving average vs. buy and hold) we first need to show the results for buying and holding the portfolios over the same time period of 2006-present (portfolio A is the Emerging Markets version, Portfolio B is the original):

We see that the Emerging Markets version had a total return of 90.5% (11.1% CAGR). .63 sharpe ration, and 12% volatility. The original version had a total return of 81.1% (10.2% CAGR), .73 sharpe ratio, and 9.2% volatility.

For the first 10 month moving average test we will revisit the original Harry Browne ETF Portfolio (SPY/SHY/TLT/GLD). When we test the 10 month moving average system we see is that the moving average system decreased volatility and returns while increasing the sharpe ratio:

Below are the annual performance statistics which include no down years (2012 is down year to date):

When we apply the 10 month moving average system to the Emerging Markets version(EEM/SHY/TLT/GLD), we see the same impact, a decrease in returns and volatility and an increase in the portfolios sharpe ratio:

The annual statistics include no losing years (2012 is down year to date):

The table below summarizes the returns of each strategy for comparison purposes:

 

Time Period 2006-present
Portfolio Strategy Total Return CAGR Volatility Sharpe Max draw down
“Original” Permanent Portfolio (SPY/SHY/TLT/GLD) Buy & Hold 81.10% 10.20% 9.20% 0.73 -15.85%
“Emerging Mkt” Permanent Portfolio (EEM/SHY/TLT/GLD) Buy & Hold 90.50% 11.10% 12.00% 0.63 -23.12%
“Original” Permanent Portfolio 10 month SMA 69.30% 9.00% 7.10% 0.79 -7.10%
“Emerging Mkt” Permanent Portfolio 10 month SMA 83.30% 10.40% 9.10% 0.75 -11.80%
SPY Buy & Hold 23.90% 3.60% 24.40% 0.12 -55.20%
SPY 10 month SMA 60.30% 8.00% 13.20% 0.38 -18.70%

There are some important caveats in these tests. The time period covered is relatively short by historical standards so it is difficult to draw significant conclusions.  The period tested includes 2008, a particularly volatile period for equities and fixed income securities. Commissions, taxes, and slippage (the price you would actually get filled at when placing a real order versus the historical data used for the tests) will impact results.

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Testing a Harry Browne Permanent ETF Portfolio

Last week I detailed an ETF portfolio (part 1 and part 2) intended to mimic PRPFX, the Permanent Portfolio mutual fund.  Coincidentally, Global X launched a Permanent ETF (PERM) last week; the fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Solactive Permanent Index.  The Solactive Permanent Index allocates 25% each to four asset class categories: Stocks, U.S. Treasury Bonds (Long-Term), U.S. Treasury Bonds (Short-Term), and Gold and Silver.

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The stated allocation of PERM corresponds to Harry Browne’s proposed allocation in his 1998 Fail-Safe Investing: Lifelong Financial Security in 30 Minutes.  Browne proposed an equal-weight portfolio of stocks, long-term bonds, cash, and gold. An investor could create this portfolio using as little as four ETFs: SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF), TLT (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury), SHY (iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Fund), and GLD (SPDR Gold Trust).  These are not the only ETFs which could be used to replicate Browne’s Permanent Portfolio. For example, VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF) is a viable substitute for SPY and offers exposure to stocks in the small and medium market cap space.

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How has Browne’s portfolio performed historically? There are several sources which track the strategy, with some minor variations between the different indexes or trading vehicles used to track performance. Crawling Road has tracked the annual performance from 1972 through 2011.

I created an ETF portfolio of SPY, TLT, SHY, and GLD. Using ETF Replay I then tested the portfolio as a buy and hold portfolio from January 3, 2005 until February 13, 2012. GLD did not begin trading until November 2004, which restricts our test using ETFs. The results of the test are below:

The portfolio had a total return including dividends of 105.7% (10.7% compound annual growth rate) with volatility of 9.3%. The max drawdown was 16.71% and the sharpe ratio .80.

How has a simple 10 month moving average system performed within this portfolio? The 10 month simple moving average system has been popularized in recent years by Mebane Faber in The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets. When an ETF in the portfolio was below its 10 month moving average at month-end, the position was sold and held in “cash” (SHY was used as a substitute for cash). When it closed the month above its 10 month moving average, the ETF was purchased at the stated allocation.

The performance for the 10 month moving average system within the 4 ETF permanent portfolio is below. The results are from 2006-February 13th, 2012. GLD did not have adequate trading history at the start of 2005 to generate a 10 month moving average, therefore we started in 2006:

The total returns were 69.2% (9% CAGR) with volatility of 7.1%. The max drawdown was 7.1% and the sharpe ratio .79. Keep in mind these statistics include the 2008 period, when global equity markets suffered extreme volatility.

Since the first buy and hold test started in 2005, it is fair to compare the 10 month moving average returns to buying and holding the same portfolio from 2006-February 13th, 2012:

From 2006 to present, buying and holding total returns were 81.1% (10.2% CAGR) with volatility of 9.2%. The max drawdown was 15.85% and the sharpe ratio .73.

In either case, the portfolio has had relatively low drawdown and volatility with recent returns outpacing equity markets. The 10 month moving average system lowered the volatility of the portfolio to 7.1% and drawdown to 7.1% but had slightly lower overall returns than simply buying and holding the portfolio.

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Building a Permanent ETF Portfolio, Part 2

Earlier this week I proposed a 14 ETF portfolio intended to replicate the popular Permanent Portfolio mutual fund, PRPFX.  My original 14 ETF portfolio was intended to replicate PRPFX as closely as possible using liquid ETFs. The 14 positions could realistically be reduced to 8 while still maintaining a high correlation to the original 14 ETF portfolio.

The original 14 ETFs are listed below:

Ticker Name Allocation
FXF Swiss Franc CurrencyShares 10.00%
GLD SPDR Gold Shares 20.00%
HYG iShares iBoxx High-Yield Corp Bond (4-5yr) 5.00%
IEF iShares Barclays 7-10 Yr Treasury (7-8yr) 5.00%
IGE iShares S&P N. Amer Nat. Resources 5.00%
VUG Vanguard MSCI U.S. LargeCap Growth 7.50%
IWO iShares Russell 2000 Growth 7.50%
LQD iShares iBoxx Invest Grade Bond (7-8yr) 5.00%
RWX SPDR DJ International Real Estate 5.00%
SHY Barclays Low Duration Treasury (2-yr) 5.00%
SLV iShares Silver Trust 5.00%
TIP iShares Barclays TIPS (4-8yr) 10.00%
TLT iShares Barclays Long-Term Trsry (15-17yr) 5.00%
VNQ Vanguard MSCI U.S. REIT 5.00%

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If we consolidate the stock and bond holdings, we are left with an 8 ETF portfolio that still closely maintains the stated portfolio structure and asset allocation  of PRPFX and, as we will see below, has been highly correlated to the 14 ETF portfolio:

AGG iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond (4-5yr) 35%
FXF Swiss Franc CurrencyShares 10%
GLD SPDR Gold Shares 20%
IGE iShares S&P N. Amer Nat. Resources 5%
RWX SPDR DJ International Real Estate 5%
SLV iShares Silver Trust 5%
VNQ Vanguard MSCI U.S. REIT 5%
VUG Vanguard MSCI U.S. LargeCap Growth 15%

Using ETFReplay.com, we see that both portfolios have shown a high correlation since 2008:

The 8 ETF portfolio had CAGR of 8.4% and a max drawdown of -25.25%. When we compare the 8 ETF portfolio to a 50/50 portfolio consisting of 50% SPY and 50% AGG, we see that the Permanent 8 portfolio significantly outpaced a 50/50 portfolio since 2008 with about the same volatility:

 

One of my favorite tools for potentially reducing portfolio volatility and drawdown is to use the 10 month simple moving average strategy, popularized in recent years by Mebane Faber in The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets.

For example, the Permanent Portfolio has a 20% allocation to Gold, which is in the midst of a bull market.  When and if Gold begins a bear cycle, it could be a significant drag on the portfolio. By using a long-term moving average signal, we could potentially reduce portfolio drawdown created when any one of the holdings enters a bear market.

The results for a 10 month moving average system on the 8 ETF Permanent portfolio are below (2008-present). When an ETF in the portfolio was below its 10 month moving average at month-end, the position was sold and held in “cash” (SHY was used as the cash position). When it closed the month above its 10 month moving average, the ETF was purchased and held until the close of the next month:

The results were not as dramatic as I expected. Portfolio drawdown was reduced to -16% versus -25.25% for buy and hold of the same portfolio. Volatility was reduced slightly to 11.5% and total return actually increased slightly to 41.4%. An improvement in all areas, yes, but not significant.

Finally, what if we simply purchased the 2 ETFs with the strongest momentum within the Permanent 8 ETF portfolio? This is a similar strategy used in my monthly ETF Replay Portfolio. Purchasing the 2 ETFs out of the 8 with the highest 6 month returns and rebalancing monthly yield the following results (2008-present):

If we purchased the top 2 ETFs as gauged by a combination of their 6 month return, 3 month return, and 3 month volatility, and rebalanced monthly, the results are below:

If we reduce the time frame to a 3 month return, 20 day return and 20 volatility, the historical results are better:

Holding only 2 ETFs increases portfolio volatility, which should be expected, but did not necessarily increase returns versus buy and hold or the 10 month simple moving average system.

The goal here is not to identify “the best” solution, since past results are no guarantee of future returns. It is to propose a relatively simple ETF portfolio to mimic PRPFX and to explore and test additional risk management and trading techniques within the ETF portfolio.

Note: All return calculations provided by ETF Replay. All returns are hypothetical and exclude commissions and taxes.

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Was Friday’s Price Action in Gold Signaling a Top in the S&P 500?

JW Jones and Chris Vermeulen give us their analysis on equities, gold, and macro events in this article. Below is an excerpt from their report:

I follow a variety of indicators to help me decipher more accurately when the market is getting overbought or oversold. For nearly two weeks the market has been extremely overbought, but now we are reaching truly astonishing levels…

 

At this point, I suspect a pullback will present a good buying opportunity for those that are patient. However, I think it is critical to point out that this move in gold on Friday could be a signal that the U.S. Dollar is going to find some short to intermediate term strength. If the Dollar does start to push higher, it will likely put downward pressure on risk assets like equities and oil

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Creating a Permanent ETF Portfolio

The Permanent Portfolio mutual fund, ticker PRPFX, is a popular mutual fund from the Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds with the stated investment objective “to preserve and increase the purchasing power value of its shares over the long term”. The fund has performed relatively well in recent years when compared to the S&P 500 and has underperformed the S&P 500 since the funds inception (12/1/82). For full performance statistics visit the fund’s site or view the fact sheet here (opens pdf file)

The fund’s “portfolio structure” shows the Target Percentages for the Permanent Portfolio:

Gold 20%
Silver 5%
Swiss Franc Assets 10%
U.S. and Foreign Real Estate and Natural Resource Stocks 15%
Aggressive Growth Stocks 15%
U.S. Treasury Bills, Bonds and Other Dollar Assets 35%

This portfolio structure helps explain the fund’s performance in recent years as Gold, Silver, and US Treasuries have performed relatively well.  According to the fund’s fact sheet the top 10 holdings, as of 12/31/11, were:

Gold Coins 13.88%
Cash and Cash Equivalents 7.09%
Gold Bullion 5.34%
Swiss Franc Bank Account 5.46%
Silver Bullion 4.08%
U.S. Treasury Bonds 6.00% 2-15-26 1.17%
U.S. Treasury Bonds 6.25% 8-15-23 1.16%
U.S. Treasury Bonds 5.25% 11-15-28 1.12%
U.S. Treasury Bonds 4.50% 2-15-36 1.06%
U.S. Treasury Notes 7.25% 5-15-16 1.04%

I read on World Beta the other day that Global X had filed for a Permanent Portfolio ETF. It will be interesting to see how this new ETF looks once it is launched.  However, an investor could also look at the stated portfolio structure of PRPFX and try to replicate it using ETFs.

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I created an “Permanent ETF Portfolio” using ETFReplay.com.  It is not possible to exactly replicate PRPFX, since its holdings change frequently and it holds individual stocks.  However, I did use its stated portfolio structure to create an ETF portfolio with the following allocation:

Ticker Name Allocation
FXF Swiss Franc CurrencyShares 10.00%
GLD SPDR Gold Shares 20.00%
HYG iShares iBoxx High-Yield Corp Bond (4-5yr) 5.00%
IEF iShares Barclays 7-10 Yr Treasury (7-8yr) 5.00%
IGE iShares S&P N. Amer Nat. Resources 5.00%
VUG Vanguard MSCI U.S. LargeCap Growth 7.50%
IWO iShares Russell 2000 Growth 7.50%
LQD iShares iBoxx Invest Grade Bond (7-8yr) 5.00%
RWX SPDR DJ International Real Estate 5.00%
SHY Barclays Low Duration Treasury (2-yr) 5.00%
SLV iShares Silver Trust 5.00%
TIP iShares Barclays TIPS (4-8yr) 10.00%
TLT iShares Barclays Long-Term Trsry (15-17yr) 5.00%
VNQ Vanguard MSCI U.S. REIT 5.00%

I then tested this portfolio as a buy and hold portfolio since 1/1/2008.  Any backtest using ETFs is limited by the trading history of the ETFs themselves; thus, I started this backtest in 2008 since some of the ETFs listed began trading in 2007.  It is difficult to draw significant long-term conclusions from such a short test, but it is interesting to compare the results to PRPFX. The results from 1/2/08 – 2/2/12

A then ran a 3 year test from 12/31/08 – 12/30/11.  The 3 year return statistics are similar when compared to the data provided on the fact sheet for PRPFX which showed a 3-year return before taxes of 13.21%:

 

I then decided to add a twist to my hypothetical “Permanent ETF Portfolio”. What if, like some of my other momentum and tactical portfolios, we only held the ETFs in the portfolio when they were above their 10 month moving average?  My expectation was that the portfolio drawdown and volatility would be reduced, since the “Permanent ETF Portfolio” had a drawdown of -26.52% (still significantly better than SPY’s 51.88% over the same period) and volatility of 12.1%.

When an ETF in the portfolio was below its 10 month moving average at month-end, the position was sold and held in “cash” (SHY was used as the cash position). When it closed the month above its 10 month moving average, the ETF was purchased at the stated allocation. This is a similar strategy to that used in Faber’s Ivy Portfolio. The results for this added test, for 2008-2011, are below:

 

Note: HYG was excluded from the first month of this test (January 2008) since it did not have sufficient trading history to generate a 10 month moving average until the following month.

As you can see, returns were similar to our previous test but volatility and drawdown both decreased.  The strategy returned a modest 7.9% annually but did so at 8.1% volatility and a max drawdown of -9.2%. It also posted a 1.8% return in 2008, when SPY returned -36.8%. However, during SPY’s bull run of 2009 when it returned 26.4%, this Permanent ETF Portfolio returned a modest 10.7%.

Please note all results are hypothetical and commissions and taxes were not included in the results. No positions in securities mentioned

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Gold: Still in an Uptrend?

Periodically on Scott’s Investments I analyze the technical picture for Gold and its corresponding ETF, GLD (SPDR Gold Shares ETF). Gold and GLD struggled mightily in December  but have rebounded in January.  With the strong sell-off in December Gold’s strong uptrend looked to be in trouble, however the January rebound has staved off a complete breakdown.

Looking at the monthly chart for GLD, you will see a strong upward channel (in red) that began in 2008. Of note is the brief breakout of the channel in 2011, which resulted in a strong sell-off the subsequent month, bringing GLD back within the channel:

In the chart above, important support levels are drawn in green and a resistance level is drawn in red at August’s closing price of $177.69. In the midst of the sell-off in December, I noted $140 looked to be a strong level of support if GLD continued to decline.  $140 remains a support level, but now that GLD has found support within the channel, the channel itself again becomes an important support and resistance level.

Since 2009 the 10 month simple moving average (in blue) has closely aligned itself with the bottom of the channel.  GLD currently resides above the 10 month moving average, although the break below the 10 month SMA in December was the first significant break below the average since 2008.  Also, we see the 10 month average migrating to the middle of the channel, a reflection of the slowing momentum in recent months.

Gold has lost some of its “mojo” in recent months but it is clinging to its upward trend.  In order to still consider GLD in an uptrend it will need to close January above its 10 month moving average and above the bottom of the long-term channel.

For daily analysis of gold, check out Chris Vermeulen’s  Gold, Oil & Index ETF Trading Analysis

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Market Readings

Below are some articles I am reading this week:

Gold Trend Forecast for Quarter 1 2012 – Chris Vermeulen

The Dollar, Weak Earnings Indicate a Top is Near for the S&P 500 – JW Jones

2012 Investments Themses (pdf) – Gary Shilling via John Mauldin; I found this article particular insightful for those looking for long-term themes

Kass: 10 Reasons for U.S. Stocks to Rally – Doug Kass via Investment Postcards from Cape Town

“Please move into Gold” Urges Richard Russell – Investment Postcards from Cape Town

Can You Create a 7% Yield Portfolio Focsuing on Munis and Dividend Stocks? - Geoff Considine

Europe’s Road to Nowhere, Part 1 – Satyajit Das

Fed’s Image Tarnished by Newly Released Documents – Washington Post

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com