MarketClub Timing Portfolio

The MarketClub ETF Portfolio I track on the site signaled a “cash” position on USO yesterday. I have updated the portfolio accordingly.  Thus, the only long position currently is SPY. For more details on this strategy click here.  Keep in mind this strategy and the spreadsheet is purely hypothetical and my posts on any portfolio updates are not real-time; signals are generated intra-day making it impossible for me to provide instant updates.

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Introducing a MarketClub ETF Portfolio

Long-time readers probably recognize the MarketClub name – they have been a long-time advertiser and supporter of this site.  I am now tracking a hypothetical portfolio using their “Trade Triangle” technology.  The purpose is to see how their technology tests in the long-term on a portfolio of four ETFs: SPY (SPDR S&P 500), USO (United States Oil Fund), FXE (CurrencyShares Euro Trust), and GLD (SPDR Gold Shares).

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The rules are simple:

1) Initial capital is divided into four parts and traded in equal dollar amounts in each of the four ETFs.

2) Long positions are determined by MarketClub’s “Trade Triangle” technology.  There is no fundamental or discretionary input for the portfolio.

3) The major “Trade Triangle” to watch in trading the 4 ETFs is the monthly “Trade Triangle” as this triangle determines the trend and your initial position. You would use a monthly GREEN  “Trade Triangle” as a primary entry point and use the weekly RED “Trade Triangle” as a move to the sidelines and into cash position. You would only reenter a long position if and when a GREEN weekly “Trade Triangle” kicked in.

In other words, purchase when both the monthly and weekly trade triangles are Green. If either switches to red, sell.  These are the buy/sell rules I will be tracking.

4) Positions are long-only, although MarketClub does provide sell/short signals.  FXE (CurrencyShares Euro Trust) is currently on a sell/short signal but for the purposes of this portfolio it will not be shorted.  The MarketClub sell signal on FXE was triggered at $135.67, with FXE now trading at $126.72.

My portfolio tracking will have limitations.  Due to the intra-day signals sent by MarketClub I am not going to be able to provide near real-time updates on the portfolio. The portfolio will most likely be updated after the market closes. However, the portfolio will be tracking trades as if they were submitted when the buy/sell signal was received.  The overall purpose is simply to track the performance of the signals on this portfolio, not to offer real-time trade signals.  I will periodically provide performance updates on the portfolio.

The portfolio is currently a buy signal for USO with the remaining three ETFs in cash or “sidelines” mode.

Again, in full disclosure I am a Marketclub affiliate. However, I am not receiving any compensation for tracking this portfolio, my purpose is simply to track their trade signals real-time and put them to the test along side some of the other free portfolios I track on Scott’s Investments.

Disclaimer: No current positions in stocks mentioned. Please note that Scott’s Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of Scott’s Investments.

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

New Feature Added

I have added video content, Adam Hewison’s daily 1pm EST market updates on the left hand side of the site.

This is a great feature because it is updated daily and provides everyone free video market commentary.  For today’s video either click on the video on the right hand side of my site or click this link.

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

3 MarketClub Portfolios

For those interested I now have 3 MarketClub portfolio’s listed on the right hand side of the site.  While the buy/sell signals aren’t tracked real-time here, users can get an idea of how the strategies have backtested here by downloading their report. The portfolios are not buy and hold, but are actively traded using MarketClub’s trade signals.

The portfolios are:

The Perfect “R” Portfolio Symbol Name
GLD SPDR Gold
USO United States Oil Fund
SPY SPDR S&P 500
FXE Currency Shares Euro Trust
World Cup Portfolio Commodity
Corn
Wheat
Soybeans
Crude Oil
Spot Gold
Global Strategy Portfolio Symbol Name
EWZ MSCI Brazil Index
RSX Market Vectors Russia
EPI WisdomTree India Earnings
FXI China 25 Index
EWA MSCI Australia Index
For real time trade signals, please consider a Risk-free trial of MarketClub

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More on this topic (What's this?)
How To Blow Up OPEC In 3 Easy Steps
3 Reasons The Market Topped Last Friday: Urgent
Market Outlook
Read more on Hong KONG&CHINA Gas at Wikinvest
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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Downside Targets for the S&P 500

Below is some content straight from Adam Hewison and MarketClub, which is also offering a 2 week trial of some of their pay services. Take a moment and check them out!

“In this short video, we share with you the downside targets that we have independently arrived at for this index.

This video is short and to the point, but you will see exactly what we’re looking at. The chart pattern and downside

counts are similar for all of the equity markets and I believe that this Friday we will see exactly what’s going to happen.

As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. All we ask is that you make a comment and let us know your views on this market.”

More on this topic (What's this?)
S&P Will Stay Relatively Range Bound Over Next Few Weeks
S&P In Process Of Building Important Top
Week Ahead Magazine: The Presidential Election Cycle
Read more on S&P 500 (SPX), CLP HLDGS, Straight at Wikinvest
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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

3 Trade Ideas / Key Levels for SPY, Crude Oil, and Gold

Below are 3 potential key levels and/or trade ideas on the S&P 500 (we can use SPY as a proxy), Gold (using GLD as a proxy), and the June Contract for Crude Oil. Each trade has a brief video with charts from MarketClub’s Adam Hewison.  I have summarized the trades and strategies below:

Market #1 S&P 500 (SPY) –  There is a lot of pressure on the markets currently and we can expect continued choppiness.  There are many nervous investors which is reflected in recent volatility, which can be expected to continue. MarketClub currently is not giving a short or long signal and has been in cash since 1181.62 and would enter a short position on the index at 1044.5 (roughly 104.45 on SPY).

Market #2 Crude Oil (June) – 71.67 was a key support level which has been broken, the next key levels to watch are 68.92 and 64.59.  The trend is clearly negative but it could be choppy if support can be found at the next key support levels.

Market #3 Gold – MarketClub is currently giving a long signal on spot Gold, but it could be getting ready to pullback as the rally looks tired in the short-term. Hewison suggest stops placed at 1217.72 on spot gold.

Two defined risk option strategies to capitalize on these ideas: If you believe the market could continue to be “choppy”, sell an iron condor on SPY. Identify your timeframe and key price points you think the market will remain above/below.  For example, today you could have sold a June 120 call and June 104 put and purchased a June 122 call and June 102 put.  Your net credit is $.60, or $60 per contract before commission.  Your max lose is $140, if SPY closes below 102 or above 122.  You could come up with many variations on this trade…

If you believe Gold may have at least seen a short term top at 122, sell a net credit spread on GLD.  For example, this could entail selling a 122 June call and purchasing a June 123 call.  Your net credit is $.32 or $32 per contract and max loss is $68 if GLD rises above 123. Again, there are numerous variations on this trade.

No positions

More on this topic (What's this?)
Pricing Gold in the Real World
Where Are Gold Prices Headed and How to Profit
Read more on SPDR S&P 500 ETF, Gold, Oil at Wikinvest
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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

A Strategy for Trading Gold

Gold closed at a nominal all-time high today and if you are looking for a trading strategy / game plan for the gold market, MarketClub’s Adam Hewison shows you one in  his newest video.  Ironically, the video was produced yesterday before today’s big move, but had you employed his trading method you would currently be long Gold.

His videos are always free and by watching his videos you help keep this blog free. It’s the best of both worlds, two things for free!

It is also worth noting that MarketClub’s trade triangle technology cashed in on SPY on May 4th, before the big crash last week.

No position in GLD or SPY

More on this topic (What's this?)
Pricing Gold in the Real World
Where Are Gold Prices Headed and How to Profit
Read more on Gold, SPDR S&P 500 ETF at Wikinvest
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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

What Happened Last Week??

Andrew Horowitz of The Disciplined Investor has a nice summary here.  In addition, it is being reported the computers were most likely behind Thursday’s mid-day crash (relatively stable Proctor & Gamble was down 37% at one point!).

Had you been following MarketClub buy/sell signals on SPY, you would have already been in cash prior to the crash. For their free video explanation/analysis on SPY click here.

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Once a Year 2 Week Trial, Now Open!

Regular readers know I post trading videos by Adam Hewison and the MarketClub team, and now is your chance to gain accessto the powerful tools, unlimited email and phone support, and Adam Hewison himself! If you watched his videos you know Adam knows what he’s talking about, and today you can use the tools he uses and get started on your way to becoming a successful trader.


Get instant access here

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Backtesting a Trend System on USD/CHF

I ran an additional backtest on another major currency pair, the USD/CHF (Swiss Franc), using the MarketClub based trading system I developed here.  To reemphasize a couple of points from that original article, currency trading carries substantial risks if you do not understand the power of leverage and backtests exclude slippage/commission/taxes.  The backtest proved to be profitable up until today’s close. I think the system I developed could be improved with additional stop loss tweaks and/or additional trend techniques. This was simply my first attempt at developing a complete system using MarketClub’s trade triangle technology.  Please view my first article for additional results and a full explanation. You can try MarketClub risk free here for 30 days.

Action Price Date P/L
sell short 1.142900 03/19/09
stopped at 1.151085 03/30/09 -$711.07
sell short 1.126900 05/04/09
stopped at 1.095407 06/24/09 $2,875.00
sell short 1.070100 07/20/09
stopped at 1.083376 07/29/09 -$1,225.43
reentry short 1.061500 08/04/09
stopped at 1.079404 08/07/09 -$1,658.69
reentry short 1.056900 08/23/09
stopped at 1.029475 11/03/09 $2,663.98
reentry short 0.994200 11/26/09
stopped at 1.014915 12/04/09 -$2,041.06
sell short 1.021400 01/10/10
stopped at 1.026707 01/15/10 -$516.90
buy to open 1.050100 01/27/10
still open 1.079700 02/17/10 $2,741.50
$2,127.33
More on this topic (What's this?)
USD/CHF – Strong Bearish Action
USD/CHF Technical Analysis for July 29, 2011
USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for July 15, 2011
Read more on Swissy (USD/CHF) at Wikinvest
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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com