The MarketClub ETF Portfolio I track on the site signaled a “cash” position on USO yesterday. I have updated the portfolio accordingly. Thus, the only long position currently is SPY. For more details on this strategy click here. Keep in mind this strategy and the spreadsheet is purely hypothetical and my posts on any portfolio updates are not real-time; signals are generated intra-day making it impossible for me to provide instant updates.
Long-time readers probably recognize the MarketClub name – they have been a long-time advertiser and supporter of this site. I am now tracking a hypothetical portfolio using their “Trade Triangle” technology. The purpose is to see how their technology tests in the long-term on a portfolio of four ETFs: SPY (SPDR S&P 500), USO (United States Oil Fund), FXE (CurrencyShares Euro Trust), and GLD (SPDR Gold Shares).
The rules are simple:
1) Initial capital is divided into four parts and traded in equal dollar amounts in each of the four ETFs.
2) Long positions are determined by MarketClub’s “Trade Triangle” technology. There is no fundamental or discretionary input for the portfolio.
3) The major “Trade Triangle” to watch in trading the 4 ETFs is the monthly “Trade Triangle” as this triangle determines the trend and your initial position. You would use a monthly GREEN “Trade Triangle” as a primary entry point and use the weekly RED “Trade Triangle” as a move to the sidelines and into cash position. You would only reenter a long position if and when a GREEN weekly “Trade Triangle” kicked in.
In other words, purchase when both the monthly and weekly trade triangles are Green. If either switches to red, sell. These are the buy/sell rules I will be tracking.
4) Positions are long-only, although MarketClub does provide sell/short signals. FXE (CurrencyShares Euro Trust) is currently on a sell/short signal but for the purposes of this portfolio it will not be shorted. The MarketClub sell signal on FXE was triggered at $135.67, with FXE now trading at $126.72.
My portfolio tracking will have limitations. Due to the intra-day signals sent by MarketClub I am not going to be able to provide near real-time updates on the portfolio. The portfolio will most likely be updated after the market closes. However, the portfolio will be tracking trades as if they were submitted when the buy/sell signal was received. The overall purpose is simply to track the performance of the signals on this portfolio, not to offer real-time trade signals. I will periodically provide performance updates on the portfolio.
The portfolio is currently a buy signal for USO with the remaining three ETFs in cash or “sidelines” mode.
Again, in full disclosure I am a Marketclub affiliate. However, I am not receiving any compensation for tracking this portfolio, my purpose is simply to track their trade signals real-time and put them to the test along side some of the other free portfolios I track on Scott’s Investments.
Disclaimer: No current positions in stocks mentioned. Please note that Scott’s Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of Scott’s Investments.
I have added video content, Adam Hewison’s daily 1pm EST market updates on the left hand side of the site.
This is a great feature because it is updated daily and provides everyone free video market commentary. For today’s video either click on the video on the right hand side of my site or click this link.
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For those interested I now have 3 MarketClub portfolio’s listed on the right hand side of the site. While the buy/sell signals aren’t tracked real-time here, users can get an idea of how the strategies have backtested here by downloading their report. The portfolios are not buy and hold, but are actively traded using MarketClub’s trade signals.
The portfolios are:
|The Perfect “R” Portfolio||Symbol||Name|
|USO||United States Oil Fund|
|SPY||SPDR S&P 500|
|FXE||Currency Shares Euro Trust|
|World Cup Portfolio||Commodity|
|Global Strategy Portfolio||Symbol||Name|
|EWZ||MSCI Brazil Index|
|RSX||Market Vectors Russia|
|EPI||WisdomTree India Earnings|
|FXI||China 25 Index|
|EWA||MSCI Australia Index|
|For real time trade signals, please consider a Risk-free trial of MarketClub|
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“In this short video, we share with you the downside targets that we have independently arrived at for this index.
This video is short and to the point, but you will see exactly what we’re looking at. The chart pattern and downside
counts are similar for all of the equity markets and I believe that this Friday we will see exactly what’s going to happen.
As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. All we ask is that you make a comment and let us know your views on this market.”
Below are 3 potential key levels and/or trade ideas on the S&P 500 (we can use SPY as a proxy), Gold (using GLD as a proxy), and the June Contract for Crude Oil. Each trade has a brief video with charts from MarketClub’s Adam Hewison. I have summarized the trades and strategies below:
Market #1 S&P 500 (SPY) – There is a lot of pressure on the markets currently and we can expect continued choppiness. There are many nervous investors which is reflected in recent volatility, which can be expected to continue. MarketClub currently is not giving a short or long signal and has been in cash since 1181.62 and would enter a short position on the index at 1044.5 (roughly 104.45 on SPY).
Market #2 Crude Oil (June) – 71.67 was a key support level which has been broken, the next key levels to watch are 68.92 and 64.59. The trend is clearly negative but it could be choppy if support can be found at the next key support levels.
Market #3 Gold – MarketClub is currently giving a long signal on spot Gold, but it could be getting ready to pullback as the rally looks tired in the short-term. Hewison suggest stops placed at 1217.72 on spot gold.
Two defined risk option strategies to capitalize on these ideas: If you believe the market could continue to be “choppy”, sell an iron condor on SPY. Identify your timeframe and key price points you think the market will remain above/below. For example, today you could have sold a June 120 call and June 104 put and purchased a June 122 call and June 102 put. Your net credit is $.60, or $60 per contract before commission. Your max lose is $140, if SPY closes below 102 or above 122. You could come up with many variations on this trade…
If you believe Gold may have at least seen a short term top at 122, sell a net credit spread on GLD. For example, this could entail selling a 122 June call and purchasing a June 123 call. Your net credit is $.32 or $32 per contract and max loss is $68 if GLD rises above 123. Again, there are numerous variations on this trade.
Gold closed at a nominal all-time high today and if you are looking for a trading strategy / game plan for the gold market, MarketClub’s Adam Hewison shows you one in his newest video. Ironically, the video was produced yesterday before today’s big move, but had you employed his trading method you would currently be long Gold.
His videos are always free and by watching his videos you help keep this blog free. It’s the best of both worlds, two things for free!
It is also worth noting that MarketClub’s trade triangle technology cashed in on SPY on May 4th, before the big crash last week.
No position in GLD or SPY
Andrew Horowitz of The Disciplined Investor has a nice summary here. In addition, it is being reported the computers were most likely behind Thursday’s mid-day crash (relatively stable Proctor & Gamble was down 37% at one point!).
I ran an additional backtest on another major currency pair, the USD/CHF (Swiss Franc), using the MarketClub based trading system I developed here. To reemphasize a couple of points from that original article, currency trading carries substantial risks if you do not understand the power of leverage and backtests exclude slippage/commission/taxes. The backtest proved to be profitable up until today’s close. I think the system I developed could be improved with additional stop loss tweaks and/or additional trend techniques. This was simply my first attempt at developing a complete system using MarketClub’s trade triangle technology. Please view my first article for additional results and a full explanation. You can try MarketClub risk free here for 30 days.
|buy to open||1.050100||01/27/10|