Ivy Portfolio for March

Near the end of January I added a free investment tool to Scott’s Investments, a daily Ivy Portfolio spreadsheet.  This tool uses Google Docs and Yahoo Finance to track the 10 month moving average signals for two of the portfolios listed in Mebane Faber’s book The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets. Faber discusses 5, 10, and 20 security portfolios that have trading signals based on long-term moving averages.

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My Ivy Portfolio spreadsheet tracks the 5 and 10 ETF Portfolios listed in Faber’s book. When a security is trading below its 10 month simple moving average, the position is listed as “Cash”. When the security is trading above its 10 month simple moving average the positions is listed as “Invested”. The spreadsheet’s signals update once daily (typically in the evening) using dividend/split adjusted closing price from Yahoo Finance. The 10 month simple moving average is based on the most recent 10 months including the current month’s most recent daily closing price.

In February I made improvements to the spreadsheet. The percentage each ETF within the Ivy 10 and Ivy 5 Portfolio is above or below the current 10 month simple moving average is now provided. I also added additional price signals based on unadjusted dividend/split data from Yahoo.

If an ETF has paid a dividend or split within the past 10 months, then when comparing the adjusted/unadjusted data you will see differences in the percent an ETF is above/below the 10 month SMA. This could also potentially impact whether an ETF is above or below its 10 month SMA. Regardless of whether you prefer the adjusted or unadjusted data, it is important to remain consistent in your approach.

There is a link to the spreadsheet at the top of the site (“Ivy Portfolio”); however, if you want a wider view of the spreadsheet click on the link “Ivy Portfolios” on the right hand column of the site.

Please note: I do not track these portfolios as hypothetical portfolios like I do with other portfolios on the site. However, I will periodically post backtest results on the strategy using ETFReplay.com and I plan on updating backtests in the next few days. Also, the signals update daily but this does not mean I endorse checking the signals each day. It simply gives the spreadsheet more versatility to have the signals update daily. All data is provided on an as-is basis, please do your own research before making any investment.

The current signals based on February’s closing prices are below. The first table is based on adjusted historical data and the second table is based on unadjusted data (click the image to enlarge):

 

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Investment Readings

Below are a few investment related articles I am reading:

Life – and Death Proposition – Bill Gross

Volatility-responsive Asset Allocation – Russell Investments

Who Took My Easy Button? (pdf) John Mauldin

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Real Returns – Mebane Faber

Eurodollar COT Indication Calls for Big Stock Market Top Now – Tom McClellan

Combining Trend Following and Option Selling Strategies – Condor Options

 

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Investment Readings

Below are some investment-related articles I am reading:

Could Oil Prices Intensify a Pending S&P 500 Selloff? – JW Jones

Towards the Paranormal – Bill Gross

Bill Gross’ summary: ”For 2012, in the face of a delevering zero-bound interest rate world, investors must lower return expectations. 2–5% for stocks, bonds and commodities are expected long term returns for global financial markets that have been pushed to the zero bound, a world where substantial real price appreciation is getting close to mathematically improbable. Adjust your expectations, prepare for bimodal outcomes. It is different this time and will continue to be for a number of years. The New Normal is “Sub,” “Ab,” “Para” and then some. The financial markets and global economies are at great risk.”

2012: A Year of Choices (pdf) – John Mauldin

Momentum for Dummies – Mebane Faber

Leading Indicators and the Risk of a Blindside Recession – John Hussman

Five Global Risks to Monitor in 2012 – Bill Hester

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DJI Oscillator Rising Index Signals Trouble – Tom McClellan

The Great Leading Indicator Smackdown: New Update and ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Shows Further Contraction  – Doug Short

Using Commodity Prices to Identify Secular and Cyclical Trends in Equity Prices and Why It’s Bearish Now (pdf) - Martin J. Pring

Disclaimer: No current positions in stocks mentioned. Please note that Scott’s Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of Scott’s Investments.

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My Take on the 2012 Presidential Election
Ron Paul Can Win
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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Tuesday Investment Articles

Below are some of the articles I’m reading this week:

S&P Jumps Into Politics Again by Lowering Euro Debt Outlook Before Summit – Bloomberg

Real Returns – Mebane Faber / World Beta

The Euro Debate Gets Philosophical (pdf) – GaveKal courtesy John Mauldin

Time to Bring Out the Howitzers (pdf) – John Mauldin

Today’s Free Technical Market Update:

Forecasting the Market: A Thought Experiment Revisited – Chris Turner

Hank Paulson’s Crony Capitalism – Rolling Stone

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Advice from the 1%: Lever Up, Drop Out – Michael Lewis

It’s Beginning to Look A Lot Like…1971 – Barry Ritholtz

Have We Avoided a Recession? John Hussman

Disclaimer: No current positions in stocks mentioned. Please note that Scott’s Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of Scott’s Investments.

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S&P Held Support But Upside Could Be Limited
S&P Rally Might Not Sustain
Read more on Investment, S&P 500 (SPX), Euro (EUR) at Wikinvest
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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Investment Readings

Below are some investment article I have recently read:

Precious Metals Charts Point to Higher Prices – Part II Chris Vermeulen

Fannie, Freddie, and the Foreclosure Crisis – Kevin Park via The Big Picture

One to Three Years Left for Gold’s Run – Tom McClellan

Print or Perish (pdf) – John Mauldin

Why the ECB Won’t (and Shouldn’t) Just Print – John Hussman

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Sorting Countries by Dividend Yield – Mebane Faber

Ben Bernanke: The Decider PIMCO

Richard Rhodes’ 12 Trading Rules Courtesy of The Big Picture

Disclaimer: No current positions in stocks mentioned. Please note that Scott’s Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of Scott’s Investments

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Basic ETF Portfolio for October

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In July 2009 I profiled a momentum based ETF portfolio. I track this portfolio (and others) monthly on Scott’s Investments using a spreadsheet. The portfolio consists of the ETFs with the best momentum among 5 ETFs: BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF), DBC (Powershares Commodity Index), VEU (Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF), VNQ (Vanguard REIT Index ETF), VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF). 

The Basic Portfolio strategy is tracked as a hypothetical portfolio on Scott’s Investments with a $10,000 starting balance. Year to date the portfolio is down 5.2% largely in part to September’s performance.  The strategy was up 2.83% including dividends for the year through the end of August.  

The strategy for the portfolio is simple: purchase the top 3 ETFs with the highest average 3, 6, and 12 month returns (“3-6-12″).  Only purchase the top 3 ETFs if they are also above their 200 day simple moving average at month end.  Investors could also ignore the moving average indicator and purchase the top 3 ETFs strictly based on historical returns (“3-6-12″) or could use a combination of different approaches or trading strategies.

Listed below are the month end results for September of the 5 ETFs listed above. This month the holdings are BND and cash.  This combination of ETFs differs from last months portfolio September’s poor performance in a variety of global equity and commodity markets led to DBC and VNQ trading below their long-term moving averages for much of the month.  Thus, they are being sold and the proceeds moved to cash until the end of October.

Many of the strategies listed here were inspired in part by Mebane Faber, author of The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets. For an even better explanation of some of the strategies, I recommend the book. 

The data source for the information below is Finviz,  and Google Finance.  No positions 


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Symbol Name Quarterly Half Year Year Average 200 Day SMA
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF 3.95% 6.24% 5.23% 5.14% 4.20%
DBC PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking -11.21% -16.18% 6.58% -6.94% -12.04%
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF -23.07% -22.37% -13.80% -19.75% -18.47%
VNQ Vanguard REIT Index ETF -15.97% -11.55% 0.79% -8.91% -10.49%
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF -16.36% -15.59% 0.35% -10.53% -11.98%

Disclaimer: No current positions in stocks mentioned. Please note that Scott’s Investments is not a financial adviser. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of Scott’s Investments.

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Weekend Investment Readings

Below are a few investment related articles I have or will be reading this weekend:

Your Gold Teeth – Paul Brodsky courtesy The Big Picture.  This is a great article for those interested in Gold and Gold Mining Stocks.  For some of my previous analysis on Gold Miners and Gold (GDX and GLD), see these articles here and here.

The Whole Truth and Nothing But – Thomas Friedman

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Learning to Love Investment Bubbles: What if Sir Isaac Newton had been a Trendfollower? Mebane Faber

Gold Price is a Measure of Dollar’s Debasement – Tom McClellan

Equity Allocations: Thinking Outside of the Box (pdf) Research Affiliates Newsletter

Disclaimer: No current positions in stocks mentioned. Please note that Scott’s Investments is not a financial adviser. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of Scott’s Investments.

More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on Gold, Investment at Wikinvest
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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

A Simple Tactical ETF Portfolio for September

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In July 2009 I profiled a momentum based ETF portfolio. I track this portfolio (and others) monthly on Scott’s Investments using a spreadsheet. The portfolio consists of the ETFs with the best momentum among 5 ETFs: BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF), DBC (Powershares Commodity Index), VEU (Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF), VNQ (Vanguard REIT Index ETF), VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF). 

The Basic Portfolio strategy is tracked as a hypothetical portfolio on Scott’s Investments with a $10,000 starting balance. Year to date the portfolio is up 2.83% including dividends.  The strategy for the portfolio is simple: purchase the top 3 ETFs with the highest average 3, 6, and 12 month returns (“3-6-12″).  Only purchase the top 3 ETFs if they are also above their 200 day simple moving average at month end.
Despite only being 5 ETFs, one could take multiple approaches to the portfolio, from buying and holding to actively managing it; or an investor could use a combination of different approaches or trading strategies.

Listed below are the month end results for August of the 5 ETFs listed above. This month the holdings are VNQ, BND and DBC.  This combination of ETFs differs from last months portfolio The portfolio rules indicate a sale of VTI and purchase of BND.  VTI is the worst performing position to date in the portfolio, losing over 9% since July 1st. 

Many of the strategies listed here were inspired in part by Mebane Faber, author of The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets. For an even better explanation of some of the strategies, I recommend the book. 

The data source for the information below is Finviz,  and Google Finance.  No positions 


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Ticker Company Performance (Quarter) Half Year Year Average Return 200-Day SMA
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF 2.85% 6.20% 4.77% 4.61% 4.18%
DBC PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking 0.10% -0.40% 33.22% 10.97% 4.13%
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF -10.12% -10.64% 7.28% -4.49% -7.26%
VNQ Vanguard REIT Index ETF -3.87% 0.24% 14.94% 3.77% 0.89%
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF -7.59% -8.14% 15.96% 0.08% -4.91%

Disclaimer: No current positions in stocks mentioned. Please note that Scott’s Investments is not a financial adviser. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of Scott’s Investments.

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Core ETF Report
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Read more on Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) at Wikinvest
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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Tuesday Readings

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Below are a few articles I’m reading this week:

Turning Japanese: SPX vs. Nikkei Index (10 Year Lag) - Barry Ritholtz

How the Federal Reserve Boxed Itself In – Barry Ritholtz

Where the Black Swans Hide and the 10 Best Days Myth (link to download full paper) – Mebane Faber

Can the Middle Class Be Saved? The Atlantic

Two One-Way Lanes on the Road to Ruin - John Hussman

Your Need This Dirty Word, Euro Bonds (pdf) – George Soros (via John Mauldin)

Disclaimer: No current positions in stocks mentioned. Please note that Scott’s Investments is not a financial adviser. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of Scott’s Investments.

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Like what you read? Consider a Paypal donation.

Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com

Investment Articles

Below are a few investment related articles for what has already been a wild week:

Danger: Children at Play – Jeremy Grantham, available directly at GMO’s website with free registration. An excerpt:

My worst fears about the potential loss of confidence in our leaders, institutions, “and capitalism itself” are being realized.  We have been digging this hole for a long time.  We really must be serious in our attempts to resuscitate the “average hour worked” and the fortunes of the average worker.  Walking across the Boston Common this morning, I came to realize that the unpalatable (to me) option of some debt forgiveness on mortgages looks increasingly to be necessary as well as the tax changes I discuss here.

To go further, if we mean to prosper long term, I am sure we need to act to make debt less attractive to everybody:  it really is a snare and a delusion.

Where Are Markets Headed? Examining Critical Levels on S&P Futures, Key Indicators – Tim Thielen

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Breakfast with Dave (pdf) – David Rosenberg, republished via John Mauldin

Change We Can Believe In – Paul Brodsky

“All that had changed was people’s opinion of the place” – Mebane Faber

Disclaimer: No current positions in stocks mentioned. Please note that Scott’s Investments is not a financial adviser. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of Scott’s Investments.

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Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of www.scottsinvestments.com