August Portfolio Review

I was a little late to the ball in August making some revisions to my test portfolios, so my test range is August 5th close-August 29th close. Portfolios are below:

Benchmarks:
SPY 128.36 / 128.79 = .33%
QQQQ 45.93 / 46.12 = .41%
DIA 116.01 / 115.45 = -.48% (-ex $.247 div on 8/15)
MSN August StockScouter Top 10: 5.7% — MMSI 20.02/19.36 (-3.3%), CSGP 51.73/52.81 (2.1%), IRIS 16.68/18.52 (11%), VLCCF 29.66/28.98 (-2.3%), RNT 27.86/28.56 (2.5%), CAP 18.39/14.8 (-19.5%), AKO.B 18.17/18.23 (.3%), DBRN 16.39/16.26 (-.8%), NCS 37.46/38.28 (2.2%), CVTX 10.12/11.49 (13.5%)

Low Price Momentum
OPEN/CLOSE
NNBR 14.8 / 16.42 = 10.95%
PCTI 10.39 / 10.11 = -2.69%
SMMX 10.3 / 11.05 = 7.28%
VPHM 12.73 / 14.65 = 15.08%
DTLK 6.04 / 5.94 = -1.66%
GSIT 3.78 / 3.81 = .79%
TTMI 11.71 / 11.98 = 2.31%
TWLL 11.59 / 11.08 = -4.40%
DINE 5.15 / 5.05 = -1.94%
CMZ 9.16 / 8.47 = -7.53%
GMK 11.38 / 11.41 = .26%
ENZN 8.29 / 9.05 = 9.17%
DLM 8.76 / 8.52 = -2.74%
CYPB 7.83 / 6.86 = -12.39%
AXAS 3.33 / 3.60 = 8.11%
——————————–
20.6/15
TOTAL RETURN: 1.37%
TOTAL RETURN OF TOP 10: 1.82%
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S&P 500 SELECT STOCKS

GE 29.25 / 28.10 = -3.93%
MSFT 26.21 / 27.29 (ex $.11 div on 8/19) = 4.12%
CVX 82.49 / 86.32 ($.65 on 8/15) = 4.64%
INTC 23.02 / 22.87 = -.65%
ORCL 22.21 / 21.93 = -1.26
QCOM 55.56 / 52.65 = -5.24%
AMGN 63.69 / 62.85 = -1.32%
OXY 75.61 / 79.36 = 4.96%
DELL 25.11 / 21.73 = -13.46%
DVN 88.9 / 102.05 = 14.79%

SYK 65.76 / 67.19 = 2.17%
CHK 44.92 / 48.4 = 7.75%
ITW 47.80 / 49.61 = 3.79%
ADBE 43.34 / 42.83 = -1.12%
WWY 79.1 / 79.48= .48%
SYMC 22.13 / 22.31 = .81%
STJ 47.5 / 45.83 = -3.52%
TEL 33.15 / 32.91 = -.72%
JNPR 25.99 / 25.70 = -1.12%
EP 16.69 / 16.76 = .42%
TXT 41.84 / 41.1 = -1.77%
AES 15.92 / 15.26 = -4.15%
5.67/22
—————————-
TOP TEN RETURN: .27%
TOTAL RETURN: .26%
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ELITE STOCKS

DR 30.76 / 31.63= 2.83%
MATK 36.57 / 33.41= -8.64%
PXD 55.40 / 63.17= 14.03%
PXP 51.83 / 53.90= 3.99%
QCOM 55.73 / 52.65 (ex $.16 div on 8/27)= -5.53%
SY 34.05 / 34.41= 1.06%
TE 17.11 / 17.84 (ex $.20 div on 8/13)= 4.27%
WAB 54.24 / 59.07 (ex $.01 div on 8/13)= 8.9%
20.91/8
——————————-
TOTAL RETURN: 2.61%
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O’Shaughnessy Growth Portfolio

NNBR 14.8 / 16.42= 10.95%
PCTI 10.39 / 10.11 = -2.69%
SMMX 10.3 / 11.05= 7.28%
HCKT 6.1 / 6.4= 4.92%
OSIP 50.93 / 50.50= -.84%
BUCY 58.3 / 69.85= 19.81%
SII 70.71 / 69.7= -1.43%
SLB 95.91 / 94.22= -1.76%
DTV 27.45 / 28.21= 2.77%
BTU 59.47 / 62.95= 5.85%
44.86/10
————————–
TOTAL RETURN: 4.49%
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O’Shaughnessy SAPI SLUGS

VLCCF
YPF
ETP
BWP
OKS
MMP
NZT
RAI
CALM
TSM
NSANY
LEG
LNT
ALE
WGL
WOR
LLY
BCE
WSO
PPG
———————————————

July Low Priced Momentum 2-Month Return July 1st – August 29th

Benchmarks:

SPY 128.38/128.79= .32%

QQQQ 45.81/46.12= .68%

IYY 62.62/63.58= 1.53%

Portfolio:

TMR 2.98/2.71= -9.06

DBRN 13.37/16.26= 21.62

PCTI 9.5/10.11= 6.42

GMET 9.48/6.98= -26.37

NTE 12.93/9.61= -25.68

WIBC 8.51/13.57= 59.46

KEI 9.54/9.51= -.31

NNBR 14/16.42= 17.29

GW 9.04/8.71= -3.65

AXAS 5.4/3.61= -33.15

WEL 2.41/3.05= 26.56

PSEC 13.07/14= 7.12

40.25/12, TOTAL RETURN: 3.35%

Jim Jubak’s 8/26 article focuses on the falling production of the major oil producers and is bullish on the long term trend in oil prices because of the mismatch between rising demand and falling production:

The big Western oil companies have been locked out of the most promising areas in the world for oil exploration. It’s not just that these companies control only 13% of today’s oil production — down from 50% or more in the 1970s — but that they have so little access to the most promising areas for future production.

National oil companies in countries such as Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela control access to roughly 80% of the world’s existing and probable oil reserves. And that percentage is rising as more countries move to take back or reduce exploration and production agreements signed with the international oil majors.

There are three ways he proposes investing in this trend: 1) Smaller oil and natural-gas companies that are showing big increases in production now and that have announced substantial discoveries that will go into production in the next decade. Names he includes, DVN, UPL, CHK, and APA. 2) National oil companies with the world-class technology to exploit the next generation of difficult geologies. There are really only two names here, PBR and STO. 3) The “pick-and-shovel” companies that supply drilling pipe, fittings, deep-sea drilling rigs, and oil-exploration and field-management services. The three names here, SLB, RIG, and NOV.

As of Aug. 26, he’s adding PBR to Jubak’s Picks with a target price of $85 a share by March.

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