Increase Your Odds With Multiple Time Frame Analysis

A good article by Brian Shannon of for those looking to get into trading or as a reminder for more experienced investors:

Two or more time frames are better than one when it comes to technical analysis. Here’s how to make the most of time frames.

We have all heard the market cliché “the trend is your friend” and for good reason. Making big money in the markets is accomplished by entering a position at the onset of a new trend and then having the patience to hold the position long enough to allow the profit to accumulate into a large winner. Participation in a long-term trend is the dream of every investor. To have a huge winner that we believed in and held well beyond the point where most participants would have been shaken out on a short- term pullbacks is what allows successful investors to reap large gains.

Many investors may find their most satisfying winners in a three-year hold. But that time frame does not fit all market participants. There are those of us who believe that long-term capital gains should be recognized after just a few days. For those traders, three years seems like a lifetime! Short-term trading can produce outsized returns, as long as losers are properly managed and winners are larger than the losers (but then again, that is true for any time frame).

Don’t Fight the Tide
In order to attain larger winners than losers, the easiest way to get the odds in your favor is to trade with the primary trend, regardless of whether you are an investor or a trader. Think of the most basic definition of an uptrend, which is price making “higher highs and higher lows.” In an uptrend, the sum of the rallies will always be greater than the sum of the declines; otherwise the trend would not be intact. The opposite is true for a downtrend; the sum of the declines will always be greater than the sum of the rallies, which obviously makes the short side more profitable in a down-trending stock. The simple math of trends is the biggest argument for why it makes sense to participate in moves that are aligned with the direction of the primary trend, rather than trying to pick tops and bottoms. Even if one can accurately predict turning points in a market, the reward will not be as great as it would be if one were participating in the trend.

A Market Can “Correct” in Two Ways
The way that markets correct is another factor that stacks the odds against those who attempt to profit by trading against the trend. For those who are beginning technical traders, there are two ways markets can correct after a move in either direction.

The first type of correction is one that occurs by price. For example, an up-trending market will experience a pullback in price, or a down-trending stock will experience a short-term rally before the primary trend re-exerts its dominance. The other way a market corrects is through time, meaning that instead of a countertrend move, the market will trade sideways as the buyers and sellers battle it out for control. A correction through time is typically marked by low volatility in a tight range, which can frustrate the person anticipating a reversal. Because numerous trends are often prevalent in a given market, the surest way to stack the odds in your favor is to use multiple time-frame analysis for trend alignment, before risking your capital.

In theory, trend trading is simple: Buy low and sell high for longs, and sell high and buy back low for short positions. In reality, many traders find trend trading frustrating because they are not focusing on the right trend. A little over one hundred years ago, Charles H. Dow wrote a series of editorials in The Wall Street Journal in which he laid out his views of how the stock market works; collectively these writings are referred to as “The Dow Theory.” The work of Dow is still referred to today and is the underlying premise of technical analysis.

Three Types of Trends
One of the foundations of the Dow theory is the identification of three types of price trends: the primary trend, the secondary trend and minor trends. The primary movements were compared to oceanic tides. They are the main trend of the market whose duration can last from a few months to several years. Primary trends cannot be manipulated, as the forces of supply and demand are too large for any one participant to successfully influence the collective reasoning of the crowd. Secondary movements were referred to as waves and they are known as reactionary moves, trends that typically last from two weeks to three months. The secondary movements are often created by a large participant (mutual fund, hedge fund, etc.) exiting all or a significant part of their position; once that supply (in an uptrend) is absorbed by the market, the buyers regain control and the stock continues higher in the primary trend. Finally, minor (or short-term) trends were viewed as insignificant ripples, which lasted less than two weeks and were given little significance because they represent fluctuations in the secondary trend. The short-term ripples in the market can be difficult to predict because they are often driven by emotions. However, skilled day traders thrive on this type of emotional short-term movement.

Pick Your Trend
One of the most important elements in successful trend trading is to determine which trend to focus on. Deciding which time frame to engage the market is largely determined by individual factors. These include time available to commit to the markets, capital base, experience level, risk tolerance and even one’s level of patience. Investors are naturally attracted to the primary movement, while the secondary moves are going to be the focus of a more intermediate-term participant (swing traders). And, the minor trends will be the obvious choice of day traders. Even as simple as that concept may seem, it becomes more complicated because technical analysis is about timing, and you must look at more than one time frame if you are truly to have the odds in your favor.

In order to make timing decisions that will allow you to determine a low-risk area to get involved and still have large profit potential, it is essential to conduct your analysis on multiple time frames. We will now explore three different time frames that investors, swing traders and day traders should look at. To make this analysis real we will use an example of a current setup in the market as if we were going to enter an investment or a swing trade. Because of the short-term nature of a day trade we will outline the time frames to consider but will not study an actual trade setup (see Table 1).

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Whether you are an investor, swing trader or day trader, the first time frame that should be studied is one that represents the primary trend. The longer, more powerful trends are the ones that you want to be sure not to fight, as mistakes can be quite costly. The long-term time frame is not about timing, it is about idea generation. For an investor, the time frame to start with is a weekly chart that encompasses at least two years worth of data. Looking at Figure 1, the weekly chart of Stats Chippac Ltd. (STTS) shows the stock has been bottoming out over the last 18 months. The recent increased volume suggests the stock may be ready for a sustained move higher that could see the stock trade near the 10-level. This is the type of chart that should get an investor interested in further study on shorter time frames (of course having a fundamental reason for being involved, in this case increased earnings and revenues, is always a bonus.)

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The primary trend for a swing trader will not be quite as long term as it would be for an investor; this is why the swing trader’s analysis of a long-term trend should take place on a daily chart, which shows at least 150 days of data. A swing trader would have good reason for being bullish on the daily trend of STTS as the stock is in a strong up trend, which is defined by a strong volume pattern and the stock holding above rising key moving averages (see Figure 2). It is also very encouraging to bullish traders that the stock found support at the prior level of resistance near $7.20 on a recent low-volume pullback.

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Drilling Down
Day traders will find it necessary to bring their analysis of a long-term trend to an even shorter period of time. That can be accomplished by studying price action on a 60-minute chart, which shows price movement over at least 25 days. The 60-minute chart of STTS (see Figure 3) is telling day traders a similarly bullish message as was seen on the weekly and daily time frames. The 60-minute time frame shows that the buyers have once again taken control of the stock by pushing past the short-term resistance at $7.30. Notice how this action has also turned the moving averages higher; confirming that the short, intermediate and longer-term trends of this time frame are now higher.

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Look Left
The units of time studied in these examples are starting points. It is often necessary to look “further to the left” to see older data that may be relevant to the primary trend. The goal of the long-term time frame is to allow the participant to recognize signs of a new trend or a stock that appears to be early on in an established trend, and then move to a shorter time frame for further confirmation of a reason to get involved in an actual trade.

Once the stock has been identified as a viable candidate for a commitment of capital, the next step is to determine key levels of support and resistance, which brings our analysis to the secondary time frame. A trader must first identify the existence of a primary trend, using the appropriate longer-term time frame. The next step for a trade set-up is to determine if there is sufficient potential for reward relative to the perceived risk, essentially this is where we plan our trade. The evaluation of the risk/ reward scenario should take place on an intermediate term time frame that allows for easier recognition of levels of support and resistance, which might not have been visible on the longer-term Time fram.

To view the secondary trend, an investor would study the action on the daily Time fram of STTS (Figure 2). On the daily chart, the investor should notice that the stock recently rallied from 7.00 to 7.60 on heavy volume and then experienced a lower volume pullback to previous resistance at 7.20. At this point, it appears the 7.2 level is where there should be good support for the stock, but the investor may want to set a stop under the rising 20-day moving average (MA) which is now at approximately 7.10, this would give the investor a theoretical risk of approximately $0.40. Setting the stop under the 20-day MA instead of under the support at 7.20 exposes the trade to more risk, but it also reduces the chance of getting stopped out of the position prematurely.

Coming up with an upward price objective could not be done on the daily time frame because of the limited price action above 7.00, so the investor would have to revert back to the weekly time frame (Figure 1) to come up with an initial target near 8.20, which is the high for the stock in 2004. Because the stock had limited trading history at the 8.20 level it is unlikely that the resistance would be very strong, thus making a target closer to 10.00 more feasible. Even the 10.00 level could prove to be conservative as there is further potential for the stock to rally up towards 12.00 which was a support level broken in late 2003. Whether the stock eventually rallies up towards ten or twelve, the risk of getting involved with a stop of just $.40 makes this a very attractive long side candidate.

Finding Support and Resistance
After identifying STTS as a good potential swing trade candidate on a daily time frame, the intermediate-term trader would then drill down the analysis of support and resistance by looking at the hourly time frame (Figure 3). The way a swing trader should interpret the action seen on the hourly chart is that the stock is in an ideal area for purchase as the buyers have just regained control of the trend on this time frame. By clearing the short-term resistance at 7.30, the buyers are back in control of the intermediate-term trend, and the stock now has strong upward momentum, making it an excellent candidate for a swing trade. The minimum upward objective for the swing trade would be the recent highs of 8.20 and determination of where to set the stop would come from an examination of the minor trend, which can be seen in Figure 4.

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The final time frame to be studied is the minor trend. The goal on this time frame is to capture a more accurate entry price. The minor trend for the investor is found in Figure 3, the hourly time frame. If the investor is looking to enter the stock while it exhibits upward strength, he may choose to enter at the same level the swing trader was targeting at, 7.30.

A swing trader should analyze the short-term trend by studying price action on a ten-minute chart, which covers ten days of trading activity. As we saw on the 60-minute chart, the ideal purchase would have occurred as the buyers gained control of the short-term trend when they pushed the stock past short-term resistance at $7.30; the ten-minute time frame shows this level in greater detail. While the ten-minute time frame does not offer any particular advantage over the 60-minute time frame in the case of STTS, it does often provide greater detail that allows us to fine tune not only our entry price but also where to place our initial protective stop.

Multiple Time frame Analysis Can Help
The concept of using multiple time frames for trading is one every market participant should consider because it allows for a greater level of objective analysis of what the market is actually doing, rather than relying on our opinions to make important trading decisions. Using three different time frames allows market participants in all time frames to find the idea (primary trend), create a plan of action (secondary trend), and capture more accurate entries (minor trend). In the end, multiple time frames allow us to become better at holding our winners and cutting our losers, a goal common to all market participants.

Articles for 12/17

From Investment Postcards from Capetown, a good article about the short term state of the stock markets: Is This It? Highlights from the article:

family:arial;font-size:85%;">Sharing my sentiments, Bill King (The King Report) commented: “Ben Bernanke and the Fed just screwed everyone in the US, and some abroad, that played by the rules, was prudent and live on fixed incomes. Ben, just like Easy Al, is once again redistributing wealth from the prudent, the savers and retirees to the reckless and the boobs that created this mess. But the Fed, via its communiqué, is admitting that it is petrified of what is occurring in the economy and financial system so it is now in all-out money/credit dump mode.”….

family:arial;font-size:85%;">(2) With the exception of the Russell 2000 Index, all the major US indices yesterday breached their 50-day moving averages. Should the bullish seasonal tendencies provide a further tailwind, the next targets for the various indices are the November 4 highs and the key 200-day moving averages, as shown in the table below. On the downside, the December 1 lows (not shown in the table) must hold for the rally to remain intact.


family:arial;font-size:85%;">The number of S&P 500 stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages has increased to 53.4% from almost zero in October. However, only 5.4% of the index constituents are trading above their 200-day lines.


Highlights from Jim Jubak’s The 10 Best Stocks for 2009:

My selection of the 10 best stocks for 2009 — and my strategy for when to invest in them — is designed to help you do three things:

  • Make some money (although not a lot of money) in the first half of the year.
  • Get you into position for a rally in the fall.
  • Make sure your portfolio is ready for 2010, when the economy itself is likely to be in recovery mode and the major long-term trends driving the global economy will be your key to market-beating returns.

So 2009 presents quite a strategic challenge.

In the first half — or even three-quarters — of 2009, you’ll need to play defense. (But you don’t want to be completely on the sidelines, just in case growth in China does bottom in the second quarter.) That means losing as little money as possible as stocks continue to founder while picking up a few percentage points of return here or there.

In the first part of 2009, I’d be very happy with anything like a 5% return from a stock portfolio. (Why not just stick it in supersafe Treasury bills or notes, you ask? Have you seen the yield on T-bills lately? It’s as close to zero as you can get.)

Then toward the end of the year, move more of your portfolio to offense, without taking on a huge risk in case your timing is off. We know from the end of other bear markets that the first months of a bull market can produce explosive returns. But bear markets are notorious for producing final rallies that pull investors in and then fail, sending the early birds reeling to yet more losses.

The 5 best stocks for the first half of 2009

  • Deere (DE, news, msgs), a farm machine producer that tracks the price of agricultural commodities. Yield: 3.1%. It was added to Jubak’s Picks on Jan. 12, 2007.
  • Enbridge (ENB, news, msgs), a natural-gas and oil pipeline company that has a 3.8% yield. It was added to Jubak’s Picks on Dec. 18, 2007.
  • ExxonMobil (XOM, news, msgs), the world’s best integrated oil company for the current environment. With a yield of 2%, these shares just make my cut.
  • Flowserve (FLS, news, msgs). Can you say infrastructure? It makes pumps and valves for moving everything from water to oil and has a yield of 2%.
  • Rayonier (RYN, news, msgs), a producer of wood products and an owner of timberland. Yield: 7.2%. It was added to Jubak’s Picks on Nov. 9, 2007.

The 5 best stocks for the second half of 2009

  • Goldcorp (GG, news, msgs), the world’s low-cost producer of gold. It was added to Jubak’s Picks on May 30, 2006.
  • Google (GOOG, news, msgs), the dominant Internet search company just gets more dominant.
  • HSBC (HBC, news, msgs), the best banking franchise left standing in Asia.
  • Petrobras (PBR, news, msgs). The Brazilian national oil company has dozens of new fields under development. It was added to Jubak’s Picks on Aug. 26, 2008.
  • Thompson Creek Metals (TC, news, msgs), the second-largest private producer of molybdenum in the world. It was added to Jubak’s Picks on June 26, 2007.

If you’re already invested, as I am in Jubak’s Picks, I suggest rebalancing your existing portfolio using these dividend-paying stocks to replace other stocks in the sector that don’t pay you to wait. If the stock allocation of your portfolio is already 50% or more in the market, I wouldn’t recommend increasing that commitment to stocks now.

I’ve got Jubak’s Picks at almost 50% in cash as of Dec. 16. That means I’ve got just 50% of my stock portfolio actually in stocks. (I run an all-stock portfolio on these pages. You, I assume, have some money in other instruments, such as bonds. I’m writing here only about the stock portion of your portfolio.) And I’m trying to keep my cash position at roughly that level even as I shift the portfolio to take advantage of the current opportunities in the market.

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