Category Archives: pbr

15 High Yield, Dividend Growth Stocks

I have published a new article on Seeking Alpha, 15 High Yield Dividend Growth Stocks.  In the article I feature RBCAA (Republic Bancorp) and DRI (Darden Restaurants)

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12 High Ranked, Dividend Growth Stocks

I wrote a recent article for Seeking Alpha which used Stockscreen123 to screen for 12 high yield, dividend growth stocks.  The stocks featured are AZN, BLK, ETN, HAS, INTC, JNJ, MOCO, PBR, SSL, STRA, TWX, WY.
  
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Backtesting Marketclub’s Portfolio Strategies

size:small;">I previously detailed a potential trading service for retail investors from MarketClub. I found a backtest of the MarketClub Trade Triangle technology at the size:small;">Shocked Investorsize:small;"> blog. The results have been reproduced below.

size:small;">Here is my no BS interpretation of the backtest: My first impression is that size:small;">Marketclubsize:small;"> has held up size:small;">very wellsize:small;"> the past 3-4 years, with the exception of leveraged ETFs (which I would not be trading/holding over long time periods to begin with) and one stock (GG). size:small;">Anysize:small;"> trend trading system is going to perform well in trending markets (strong up/down moves). The volatility in recent years helped Marketclub’s system. Flat/choppy markets typically are the toughest markets on any trend system. In addition, if you decide to try their system you are still going to need to have your own money management system. In other words, stop losses and position sizes are up to the individual investor.

size:small;">
size:small;">That being said, if you are interested in a free 30 day trial of Marketclub, click here or check out their free video here. The backtest from Shocked Investor below, unverified by myself:

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size:small;">The methodology is incredibly simple to use. I ran the same methodology they describe on several different stocks, backtesting from 2005/2006, wherever there was available data.

Here are the results for an initial capital at risk of $10k:

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Sorted version:

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size:small;">He concludes thatsize:small;">:

size:small;">Out of 22 stocks that I normally trade or pay attention to, there were 19 winners. The average of the winners was 61.3%. This is not bad at all. It is quite impressive for such an easy to use tool (you just follow the buy and sell alerts).

There were three losers: Goldcorp, SDS, and SKF. Goldcorp was ran twice, using extended time frames. The losses were reduced by using a longer timeframe. SDS is an ultra short (leveraged) ETF that tracks inversely the SPX. SKF is also an ultra-short that inversely tracks financials.

It seems that the methodology works well on regular stocks, and also on long leveraged ETFs. It does not work so well on the short (bear) versions, at least the oens we ran. The stocks that are not too volatile do fine. The indicators alerts tend to lag and it seems as if the tool awaits for clear confirmation of trend changes before issuing an alert. With fast moving stocks, this may lag too much and it may or not work. For regular, solid companies this seems ok. Now it also wokrs fine for the bull leveraged versions.

The above was all based on the monthly timeframes. It is also possible to use weekly and daily timeframes

size:small;">Disclosure: I am a Marketclub affiliate, primarily because I find their services of use.
More on this topic (What's this?)
US Market ETF Trading Map
Using an ETF Portfolio
Core ETF Report
Read more on Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) at Wikinvest

Articles for 12/17

From Investment Postcards from Capetown, a good article about the short term state of the stock markets: Is This It? Highlights from the article:

family:arial;font-size:85%;">Sharing my sentiments, Bill King (The King Report) commented: “Ben Bernanke and the Fed just screwed everyone in the US, and some abroad, that played by the rules, was prudent and live on fixed incomes. Ben, just like Easy Al, is once again redistributing wealth from the prudent, the savers and retirees to the reckless and the boobs that created this mess. But the Fed, via its communiqué, is admitting that it is petrified of what is occurring in the economy and financial system so it is now in all-out money/credit dump mode.”….

family:arial;font-size:85%;">(2) With the exception of the Russell 2000 Index, all the major US indices yesterday breached their 50-day moving averages. Should the bullish seasonal tendencies provide a further tailwind, the next targets for the various indices are the November 4 highs and the key 200-day moving averages, as shown in the table below. On the downside, the December 1 lows (not shown in the table) must hold for the rally to remain intact.

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family:arial;font-size:85%;">The number of S&P 500 stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages has increased to 53.4% from almost zero in October. However, only 5.4% of the index constituents are trading above their 200-day lines.

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Highlights from Jim Jubak’s The 10 Best Stocks for 2009:

My selection of the 10 best stocks for 2009 — and my strategy for when to invest in them — is designed to help you do three things:

  • Make some money (although not a lot of money) in the first half of the year.
  • Get you into position for a rally in the fall.
  • Make sure your portfolio is ready for 2010, when the economy itself is likely to be in recovery mode and the major long-term trends driving the global economy will be your key to market-beating returns.

So 2009 presents quite a strategic challenge.

In the first half — or even three-quarters — of 2009, you’ll need to play defense. (But you don’t want to be completely on the sidelines, just in case growth in China does bottom in the second quarter.) That means losing as little money as possible as stocks continue to founder while picking up a few percentage points of return here or there.

In the first part of 2009, I’d be very happy with anything like a 5% return from a stock portfolio. (Why not just stick it in supersafe Treasury bills or notes, you ask? Have you seen the yield on T-bills lately? It’s as close to zero as you can get.)

Then toward the end of the year, move more of your portfolio to offense, without taking on a huge risk in case your timing is off. We know from the end of other bear markets that the first months of a bull market can produce explosive returns. But bear markets are notorious for producing final rallies that pull investors in and then fail, sending the early birds reeling to yet more losses.

The 5 best stocks for the first half of 2009

  • Deere (DE, news, msgs), a farm machine producer that tracks the price of agricultural commodities. Yield: 3.1%. It was added to Jubak’s Picks on Jan. 12, 2007.
  • Enbridge (ENB, news, msgs), a natural-gas and oil pipeline company that has a 3.8% yield. It was added to Jubak’s Picks on Dec. 18, 2007.
  • ExxonMobil (XOM, news, msgs), the world’s best integrated oil company for the current environment. With a yield of 2%, these shares just make my cut.
  • Flowserve (FLS, news, msgs). Can you say infrastructure? It makes pumps and valves for moving everything from water to oil and has a yield of 2%.
  • Rayonier (RYN, news, msgs), a producer of wood products and an owner of timberland. Yield: 7.2%. It was added to Jubak’s Picks on Nov. 9, 2007.

The 5 best stocks for the second half of 2009

  • Goldcorp (GG, news, msgs), the world’s low-cost producer of gold. It was added to Jubak’s Picks on May 30, 2006.
  • Google (GOOG, news, msgs), the dominant Internet search company just gets more dominant.
  • HSBC (HBC, news, msgs), the best banking franchise left standing in Asia.
  • Petrobras (PBR, news, msgs). The Brazilian national oil company has dozens of new fields under development. It was added to Jubak’s Picks on Aug. 26, 2008.
  • Thompson Creek Metals (TC, news, msgs), the second-largest private producer of molybdenum in the world. It was added to Jubak’s Picks on June 26, 2007.

If you’re already invested, as I am in Jubak’s Picks, I suggest rebalancing your existing portfolio using these dividend-paying stocks to replace other stocks in the sector that don’t pay you to wait. If the stock allocation of your portfolio is already 50% or more in the market, I wouldn’t recommend increasing that commitment to stocks now.

I’ve got Jubak’s Picks at almost 50% in cash as of Dec. 16. That means I’ve got just 50% of my stock portfolio actually in stocks. (I run an all-stock portfolio on these pages. You, I assume, have some money in other instruments, such as bonds. I’m writing here only about the stock portion of your portfolio.) And I’m trying to keep my cash position at roughly that level even as I shift the portfolio to take advantage of the current opportunities in the market.

Jubak: Buy Commodity Stocks Now (Yes, Now)

Jubak’s 10/17 article highlights his favorite commodity stocks and his reason to bullish (long term) on certain commodity stocks. He’s bullish on:

TC (book value of $6.49/share), $17 price target for Dec 2009
CHK, target price of $39 a share by December 2009.
YARIY target price of $38 a share by December 2009.
PBR target price of $41 a share by December 2009
He’s currently looking to sell FCX and RIG.
He also says DVN, FSUMF, and UPL are holds.

Disclosures: I am long CHK and FSUMF

Jubak: Feds bailed out China, not the US

Jubak’s 9/12 article:

“The Fannie-Freddie rescue will work out great for emerging markets abroad, but it’s going to kill us here at home. You might find some relief by investing in a handful of recommended foreign stocks…..

What should you buy once you think you’ve heard the all-clear? I’d break down my potential purchases this way:

  • Stocks of domestic Chinese companies that should see the direct effects of any government efforts to stimulate growth. Two that I’m going to add to my watch list (on the left side of this page) are China Medical Technologies (CMED, news, msgs) and SunTech Power (STP, news, msgs).
  • Stocks of domestic Brazilian companies in order to reap the benefits of accelerating growth in that country and continued improvement in Brazil’s creditworthiness. (Brazil’s credit rating going up as the credit rating of the U.S. is under pressure? Who would have thunk it?) Two that I’m going to add to my watch list are Jubak’s Picks Petrobras (PBR, news, msgs) and Banco Itaú Holding Financeira (ITU, news, msgs).
  • Stocks of suppliers to developing markets. For example, any recovery in the Chinese steel industry will be a huge shot in the arm for Australian iron mining companies such as current Jubak’s Pick Fortescue Metals Group (FSUMF, news, msgs).

As of Sept. 12, I’m cutting my target price for Fortescue to $9 a share by July 2009 from my prior target of $15 by October 2008.

As of Sept. 12, I’m keeping my target price at $29 a share [Thompson Creek Metals] but stretching out my schedule to September 2009 from December 2008.”

Disclosure: I am long FSUMF

Jim Jubak’s 8/26 article focuses on the falling production of the major oil producers and is bullish on the long term trend in oil prices because of the mismatch between rising demand and falling production:

The big Western oil companies have been locked out of the most promising areas in the world for oil exploration. It’s not just that these companies control only 13% of today’s oil production — down from 50% or more in the 1970s — but that they have so little access to the most promising areas for future production.

National oil companies in countries such as Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela control access to roughly 80% of the world’s existing and probable oil reserves. And that percentage is rising as more countries move to take back or reduce exploration and production agreements signed with the international oil majors.

There are three ways he proposes investing in this trend: 1) Smaller oil and natural-gas companies that are showing big increases in production now and that have announced substantial discoveries that will go into production in the next decade. Names he includes, DVN, UPL, CHK, and APA. 2) National oil companies with the world-class technology to exploit the next generation of difficult geologies. There are really only two names here, PBR and STO. 3) The “pick-and-shovel” companies that supply drilling pipe, fittings, deep-sea drilling rigs, and oil-exploration and field-management services. The three names here, SLB, RIG, and NOV.

As of Aug. 26, he’s adding PBR to Jubak’s Picks with a target price of $85 a share by March.