Category Archives: tail risk

Gold Projection & Mid-Week Investment Readings

David Banister has released his new projections for Gold here.  You’ll remember last week I posted a gold forecast projecting a short-term dip.  It’s possible that “dip” could be coming to an end if Banister is correct.  The smarter play, however, may be to look at GDX (Gold Miners ETF) because the Gold to XAU (Gold & Silver Miners Index) ratio is currently at 8.49, high by historical standards. For some background on how to use this ratio, please search my site for “GDX” or see my previous articles here and here.


A Second Lost Decade: an Update of the Secular Bear Market in Equities (pdf) – Pring Turner Capital Group,

Did Tail Insurance Turn South in Recent Market Volatility? Geoff Considine

Brace for a Long Recovery From Global Credit Glut: Simon Johnson

Fed Policy – No Theory, No Evidence, No Transmission Mechanism – John Hussman

Is the US Monetary System on the Verge of Collapse? (pdf) John Mauldin

Preparing for a Credit Crisis (pdf) John Mauldin

Nursing the Patient (Part III): Unwinding the Monetary Mess (pdf) – BCA Research via Cumberland Advisors

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Disclaimer: No current positions in stocks mentioned. Please note that Scott’s Investments is not a financial adviser. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of Scott’s Investments.

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